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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: TCRC

The QB2 transactions are quite complexe to analyse. 

The minority interest had different terms vs. what Sumitomo got. 

The minority interest is getting milestone payments, which devaluate over time (unless they have an inflation clause or something).  This is the way I see their P/NAV calculation.

https://agoracom.com/ir/CopperFoxMetals/forums/discussion/topics/762544-qb2-minority-interest-acquisition-should-be-the-benchmark-for-sc/messages/23203

Also, at my knowledge, anyone that would have bought the minority interest would also have needed to pay their share of capex.  That's currently anywhere between $635M US (4.7B) and $700M US (5.2B) for 13.5%.

Therefore, Teck will pay the minority interest anywhere between $162M US and $262M US + they are on the hook for the capex, for a total minimum out of pocket around $800M US for that 13.5% interest. 

We all know that with debt, that's not really what Teck will pay out of its pocket, but in my opinion, that's still the total funds required regardless where the money is coming from.

If you convert that 800M for 13.5% to 30%, it adds-up to around $1.75B US, which is pretty close to the minimum ($1.55B) that Sumitomo will pay at the end for a "partial" carried-interest to production, but again with a different series of milestone payments.

Now, when you compare this to a NPV (8%) of 2.9B when using the QB2 base case with copper at $3.25 US, Sumitomo will be paying close to 200% of their after-tax NAV for a full carried-interest to production.

https://www.teck.com/media/QB2-Partnership-and-Sanctioning-Conference-Call.pdf

Now we can apply the same logic to SC with improved numbers and discount that number by 8% to 15% for every year left before a reasonable production decision.  Should give us a good idea of what SC is worth. 

IMO.

MoneyK

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