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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: Scenarios

Scenarios

posted on Mar 19, 2009 06:00PM

Since I had some time I thought I would look at both sides of this issue to see if anything could come to light.

The Venezuela government knows exactly what Crystallex plans are if they refuse to give them the permit. Crystallex will wait till may 28th and then file for arbitration with the ICSID. The Vens know that the outcome will not be in there favor, they had two ICSID cases go agaisnt them already. Sanz had also mentioned this fact in one of the Rusoro articles stating that legality of taking away Las Cristinas from Crystallex. I would image the government knows the ICSID cases with Crystallex could result in a multi-billion dollar settlement.

On the Governments side of the coin, Crystallex knows very little about the governments true intentions about Las Cristinas. It is quite evident that Chavez is in love with the Russians, and would like to deal with them (Rusoro). However, breaking the contract with Crystallex leaves them in a huge legal mess. Case one, if they were to directly give Las Cristinas to Rusoro it should of happened already. Thus, Case one is not an option. Case two they wait for Rusoro to buy-out the battered GRZ or KRY. This may not be possible since it would require more money then they currently have or could raise at this point. What would be needed is a third party to join Rusoro with a sustainal amount of money to buyout GRZ/KRY. This would probably be the best scenario for Venezuela, since they would not lose a ton of money in arbitration. Furthermore, if Venezuela wants to start mining Las Cristinas and Las Brias quickly they would obtain the mining plans from both companies. Case Three, they grant the permits to KRY and GRZ since no third party is coming forward to help with a buy-out. I like this case but I may be biased.

JMHO.

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