I posted this a few months ago:

Some simple math:

Award $1,202 million

Interest (assuming the award is realised in 2 years) $300 million

Deductions:

Post-filing expenses (guess): $10 million

Taxes (this is complicated and will depend upon interpretation of the award as damages, capital gain or income, the interest will be taxed as income - so a best case guess): $150 million

Repayment of DIP loan: $120 million (assuming it takes < 2 years to realise the award)

Noteholders repayment (assuming they don't sue for more): $145 million

Other unsecured claims and interest (guess): $25 million

Total deductions: $450 million

Net Arbitration Proceeds (NAP): $1,052 million

Payable to Tenor (88.254% - but this may be incorrect): $928.4 million

Balance: $123.6 million

Payable against the MIP (25%): $30.9 million (Tenor will make up the difference to 10% of NAP i.e. Fung + 1 get $105.2 million to share)

Balance to shareholders: $92.7 million (6.2% of gross award)

Per share (365.4 million shares - assume options etc. expired): $0.25 / share ($0.22 if fully diluted)

The big variable is the waterfall agreement - my guess is that above a certain NAP figure (say $700m) the % paid to Tenor goes down - this will give us more money. One other point which I think Jimmi claimed was that Tenor would pay 88% of the costs to defend against Gowling. This is not likely to be true, such costs would be taken AFTER the NAP calculation i.e. shareholders pay 100% of these costs - not a big figure either way. Also missing are the costs to wind the company up - again taken out of the shareholder pool.

My guess about the waterfall is that shareholders will end up with somewhere between 25 and 50 cents per share - 37.5 cents should be close.

ALL THIS ASSUMES VZ PAYS UP - unfortunately we have seen with GRZ and what Maduro is doing that there is little hope of that.