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Message: goldtutor

GOLDTUDOR- I got this from SH and Agora boards from "TheRock07" I think it best describes CSG. This stock is looking like its headed for greatness. I have been a shareholder for 2 years with AUQ and did not sell a share.

Excellent Upside on Nascent Gold Producer

CSG was recently formed thru an amalgamation of AUQ, a low cash cost and profitable gold junior which began production in Dec/06, and the emerging producer MGM, which will make its first commercial gold pour very shortly.
By early 2008, the combined entity will be producing at an anual runrate of about 43,000 to 45,000 oz per year at an average cash cost of about $285 per oz.

Shares outstanding are 70 million and 80 million fully diluted.

Some salient points of this new gold producer ( CSG )..

...GOOD MANAGEMENT is always the first paramter for successful gold stocks and CSG has an exceptional team.

The CEO is the veteran Chester Miller who founded Glamis Gold which was recently sold to Goldcore for $9.7 billion; he also founded Eldorado Gold which has a current market cap near $2 billion;and also Alamos Gold which has a market cap near $1 billion.

Other members of the CSG team include individuals which were former execs of such senior miners as Placer Dome, Teck-Comminco and Falkconbridge.
The AUQ management team have demonstrated their ability by bringing onstream the El Sastre gold mine and which is now exceeding forecast production at very low cash costs ( %180/0z ).

....A Capable IR rep.

CSG recently hired IFC as their IR rep. IFC have an international scope and one of their key objectives is to widen CSG's shareholder base to include international shareholders who will hold for the longer term rewards.

....A Substantial Gold resource that has additional exploration upsides.

El Sastre has a 43-101 gold resource of 765,000 oz, with an exploration potential in excess of 1 million oz.

El Castillo has 43-101 gold resources of 1.22 million oz,measured at $325 POG.; substantial additional upside will accrue just from the fact that the cut-off grade can be much lower at POG of $700/0z

.....Robust Cash Flows At a Low Cash cost.

El Sastre will produce 15,000 oz per year at a cash cost of $180 per oz, and El Castillo will produce 29,000-30,000 oz per year at a cash cost of $337/0z.
The combined cash costs will be about $285 per oz, which is well below that of the average gold mine.

At 44,000 oz per year and $700 gold, the annual cash flows will be about $18 million per year which, at a very conservative 10 times cash flow, would result in fair value market cap of at least $180 million or better than $2 per share.

....Strong Balance sheet, with low debt to cash flow

AUQ is/was debt free with a cash position of $1.25 million.
MGM has a debt of $5.9 million, with about $1 million in cash and added about $2.5 million in cash recently with the sale of a non-core property. It also has 2.5 million warrants at $0.58 which should add another $1.25 million to the treasury.

At POG of $700/0z, the annual debt to cash flow ratio will be less than 0.35..quite small indeed and would ensure that debt can be quickly paid down.

..A Diversified Asset Base, with strong development/exploration upside.

AUQ has a 100% interest in Lone Mountain gold+ exploration project west of Eureka, Nevada on the Battle Mountain-Cortez Gold Trend.A recent drilling program at Lone Mountain uncovered a very prospective base metal prospect with spectacular intersections of f 41.3 % zinc and over 21 % lead over 4.6 metres.

MGM has the La Fortuna project, also in Mexico, which is very advanced, after having had $9 million and 121 drill holes invested in it in the !990s. Historical drilling resulted in assay values up to 80 gm/ton gold and 1500 gm/ton silver. Recently, MGM added substantially to this prospect by essentially acquiring all of the surrounding sections.
The geological resource was estimated by Fluor in 1995 to contain 4.5 million tons grading 2.3 gms/ton gold, 30 gms/ton silver and 0.23 % zinc , with contained metal estimates of 322,000 oz of gold, 4.3 million oz of silver and 23 million lbs of copper.

That is, La Fortuna has excellent potential for both high grade mineralization, and also low grade bulk tonnage mineralization.
A $200,000 drilling program will be conducted this fall to provide sufficient additional drill data to permit a 43-101 resource estimate in early 2008, following which a scoping study will be done.

Summary

With gold about to move to historic highs, emergent, undiscovered gold producers with low cash costs and significant exploration/growth upsides, offer considerable leverage to current market cap.
CSG is one of the best buys in this category, as it has nearly 2 million oz of gold resources, has a good balance sheet, excellent management in a low risk environment, has emergent gold production with a mine life of 12 years, and substantial exploration upside that offers near term production gains.

Fair valuation of gold stocks generally falls within the $280 to $340 per recoverable oz of gold , and /or a cash flow multiple of 15 times annual cash flows.

Either way, CSG should be valued well above $2 on succesful execution of its current production profile, with additional and perhaps significant upside from its exploration projects.

At least, thats my take on it..

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