Discovering Canada’s Coal resources

Intersected 23 metres of Black Coal - Border property 50km north of the town of Hudson Bay, SK

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Message: Fairchij calculation on the pasquia basin

Fairchij calculation on the pasquia basin

posted on Mar 09, 2009 04:51PM

Thanks again,Fairchij, pls post it here tooyour marvellous work. BH



I ran some numbers for the Feb 27 news release “COAL CONTINUITY DEVELOPING IN PASQUIA SUB-BASIN “

In that release they talk about an open ended area of 2 square km. To come up with this number they must have connected each drill hole directly with the closes drill hole. But if you assign 1 square km for every grid that a drill hole is in you end up with 6 square km. A fairly reasonable assumption in my opinion if you just eye ball it.

So I took the intercept for each hole and came out to an average coal thickness of 35 meters. The average overburden plus gaps between intercepts (waste) came out to an average of 77 meters. This gave me ratio of 2.2 to 1. At the Royal York Eric said that they see the average strip ratio at the border property shaping up to 2:1 so these calculations appear valid. He also stated that the average strip ratio at PRB was 4:1.

So I continued with a volume calculation using 6 square km (the eye balled area from the map) and 35 meters of average coal thickness in the holes so far and came out with a volume of just over 210 million cubic feet. Using a density of 1.3 this translates to 274 million tonnes. I assigned a value of $2 per tonne in the ground (an arbitrary number) and I came up with an NAV of $550 million. Which works out to $27/ share.

Bashers are going to say I’m dreaming but

I don’t see any exaggeration in these numbers and they are just what I am using for this one area of the property. In my mind I think that where we are trading at $2 is a screaming bargain.

hole

coal

over burden

35

ave thickness


2

23

82


1000

1 km X



5

36

78


6000

6 km



30

56

90


210,666,667

volume



32

34

70


1.3

density



36

17

63


273,866,667

tonnes



37

54

108


2

NAV of 1 tonne in the ground

42

41

92


547,733,333

NAV of deposit


45

29

55


20000000

shares



46

26

55


27.39

NAV of shares


average

35

77

2.2








strip ratio


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