Electric vehicles are more popular than ever, and widespread adoption of them is a key part of global plans to decarbonize the transportation sector. 

But the batteries powering these vehicles require a variety of critical minerals — like lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel — which has some experts concerned about runaway demand.

"Can the supply match the demand or not? If we cannot match the demand, that means we are going to face some bottlenecks," said Fengqi You, a professor in the department of engineering at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y.

You authored a recent study that predicts demand for lithium could rise by roughly 3,000 to 7,000 per cent by 2050, while demand for nickel, cobalt and manganese could also increase by thousands of per cent. Making sure we don't run into supply constraints with these minerals is a key challenge, You warns, and will require careful thought.

His recommendation: prioritize the electrification of certain types of transportation over others.

The Cornell researcher found that heavy-duty vehicles — like buses, semis and large passenger trucks — would account for more than 60 per cent of critical mineral demands, while only accounting for four to 11 per cent of the road fleet and roughly 30 per cent of total transportation emissions.

In other words, it may not be an efficient use of resources to put batteries in heavy-duty vehicles, given that the electrification of light- and medium-duty vehicles would reduce more emissions overall while using fewer mineral resources.

Adam Thorn, director of the transportation program at the Pembina Institute, a Canadian energy think-tank, expects these constraints to ease as countries continue to develop extraction, manufacturing and recycling systems. But he notes the short-term supply crunch may affect our ability to make a rapid transition to EVs.

"What is quite different and distinct about this mode of transportation that we're shifting to is that it's material-intensive," said Thorn. "We know that it's going to require significant amounts of critical minerals."

Thorn says different vehicles may require different decarbonization solutions — especially in the diverse heavy-duty vehicle sector. 

"There are lots of ways that we can decarbonize without just a one-to-one transition from an internal combustion engine to an electric vehicle," Thorn said. 

Lower-weight heavy-duty vehicles that run "relatively short and predictable routes" — like buses and delivery trucks — may be well-suited for battery technology, Thorn argues. But for heavy freight that travels long distances and needs a greater range and faster refuelling, other forms of decarbonization, like hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels, may be preferable.

You also recommends using multiple forms of low-emissions technology in the heavy-duty sector to build a more resilient supply chain.

The International Energy Agency reports 4.5 per cent of buses and 1.2 per cent of medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold worldwide in 2022 were electric.

You and Thorn believe one important piece of the puzzle is the development of a circular economy — that is, a system that emphasizes reusing and recycling materials. In the case of electrifying transport, that means powerful battery recycling.

For Thorn, another critical cog in the wheel of sustainability is a robust system of public transportation — critical mineral demand and emissions can be reduced by encouraging people to take buses or trains, which would reduce the total number of vehicles on the road.

Many countries have successfully reduced emissions through public transportation, says You, but North America has a long-standing reliance on personal transportation that may be difficult to shed.

For Thorn, structural changes — like increased funding and redesigned cities — could get more people out of cars and onto transit and help solve the battery demand crunch.

"Longer term, we need to talk about shifting the urban form," he said. "We have built cities that are really car-centric, and it's going to take a while to undo that."

— Adam Beauchemin