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Message: Article re High River Gold

Article re High River Gold

posted on Jan 25, 2010 04:13PM

The below updated information was sent to a list of gold newletter writers to inform them of the HRG opportunity.

January 25, 2010
HIGH RIVER GOLD (HRG.TO) should trade 4-5 times current price.

(All numbers below are approximate and in C$)

Summary

High River Gold (HRG.TO) is a very established Canadian un-hedged gold mining company. It generated $33M in positive cash flow from operation in Q3 2009 and is expected to generate $45M in Q4 due to the increase in gold prices. At the current $.75 share price it is trading at 4.5 times annualized Q3 cash flow and 3.4 times annualized Q4 projected cash flow. It’s gold mining peers are trading at an average of 18.1 times Q3 cash flow. If HRG were trading at this average multiple on Q3 and projected Q4 cash flow, the share price would be C$2.99 and $4.08 respectively.HRG was trading at $3.50 in 2008. For yearend 2009, the company should have enough liquid assets to cover off all debts with a surplus of $50M. One of Russia’s largest steel companies, Severstal, is the majority shareholder and has done a good job of turning this business around. During 2009, it was Severstal’s intention to buy out minority shareholders. Clearly, there is the potential for a significant short term return if Severstal makes another offer. However, if no buyout offer materializes, there remains an even more significant upside of 4-5 times the current price if HRG reaches the cash flow multiples of its peers. These price predictions exclude any value generated from the Prognoz silver deposit – one of the world’s largest and highest grade. Olma Investment Firm recently put a $2.48 target price on HRG.

Financial Performance first 9 months 2009

1) $263M revenues vs. $123M in first 9 month of 2008 – a 114% increase

2) increase in Gold production to 241,781 from 133,130 in first 9 months of 2008 – an 82% increase.

3) $86M positive cash flow from operations – an increase of 12 times over first 9 months last year. (HRG projected Q4 cash flow at $180M annualized).

4) $67M of debt paid down to a balance of $121M at end of Q3. At 2009 year end, HRG likely had a $50M surplus in liquid assets after allowing for all debts.

5) $18.5 million in working capital at end of Q3, up from a $42.1 million deficit at 2008 yearend.

6) 25% and 38% decrease in Q3 direct mining costs (cost per ounce produced) compared to Q2 2009 and Q3 2008, respectively.

Prospects

11) HRG says 300,000 oz to be produced in 2009

12) Bankable Bissa feasibility study to be completed in 2010 with goal to advance resource to multi-million oz level.

13) Prognoz value not reflected in price. It is ranked # 10 Silver deposit in world with highest grades in the world.

14) Many analysts predict gold prices to trade in the $1200-1300/oz range in 2010. This could increase 2010 cash flow from operations by $88-127M.

15) Low entry price at $.75 with Q4 expected cash flow multiple at 3.4 times with peers trading at 18.1 times.

16) There may be asset write-ups in 2010 once reserves are increased from new exploration and drilling programs.

Debt coverage & Surplus

Based on the Q3 numbers and the completion of the Troika investment, HRG has a significant surplus after allowing for all debts. At the end of Q3 the total debt was $121M plus $23M in payables for a total of $144M. To counter this, there was $39M in cash (and equivalents), plus $53M in third party stock investments (at latest share prices) plus $57M investment from Troika - bringing the total to $149M. If HRG produces gold at the same rate as in Q3, the Q4 cash flow is expected to have improved by $12M to $45M - due to $141.57/oz increase in gold prices (Q3 gold price avg. 960.07, Q4 price avg. $1101.64). If so, HRG will have a surplus of $50M on a net basis at year end 2009.

HRG’s Peer Comparison

HRG’s peer group of mid-tier public gold companies (Randgold Resources, Northgate Minerals, Centerra Gold, Golden Star Resources, Red Back Mining, Eldorado Gold, Semafo Inc., Gammon Gold, New Gold Inc., Alamos Gold, Aurizon Mines, Jaguar Mining) is trading at an average of approx. 18.1 times Q3 Operating Cash flow on an annualized basis. If HRG were trading at this average multiple on Q3 and projected Q4 cash flow, the share price would be C$2.99 and $4.08 respectively. HRG was trading at $3.50 in 2008.

2010 Cash flow

The average price of gold was $972.34 in 2009. In Q3 2009, HRG achieved $388/oz in cash flow from operations. If the gold price moves to an average of $1200-1300/oz in 2010, then HRG would likely increase its cash flow by $88M - $127M.

Ownership

There are approx. 799.2M shares outstanding. Severstal owns approx. 400.7M shares (50.1%). Minority own approx. 398.5M of which institutions own approximately 270M shares. Troika is the largest institutional holder followed by Sprott Asset Management. Eric Sprott has confirmed that he believes HRG’s shares are worth $2 minimum currently.

References

National Post Article

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/12/16/high-river-on-track-massively-undervalued.aspx

Olma Investment Research Report ($2.48 target price)

http://freepdfhosting.com/8264920e79.pdf

Note: If you are distributing any info from the Olma report to your subscribers, please include the disclaimer located at bottom of Olma report.

HRG Global Peer Group Comparison & Third Party Investments

http://freepdfhosting.com/da69a70746.pdf

Prognoz Silver Deposit rankings:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1172041200.php

High River Gold:

http://www.hrg.ca/s/Home.asp

HRG Q3 2009 press release:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/High-River-Gold-Reports-Third-ccn-1899805673.html?x=0&.v=1

HRG 2008 yr end press release:

http://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=8&issuerNo=00002764&fileName=/csfsprod/data97/filings/01410540/00000001/s%3A%5CHRG429.pdf

HRG Q3 2008 press release:

http://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=8&issuerNo=00002764&fileName=/csfsprod/data94/filings/01359505/00000001/y%3A%5CSEDAR%5CPRs%5Cpr_press_081218.pdf

Disclosure

I am a retail investor who has been very active in HRG and I own 5.5M shares.

Disclaimer

I have gathered the above information from the above sources and others on the internet. Please do your own research to confirm the findings. Please do not rely in this information solely to make your investment decision.

If you received this communication by e-mail, you are already on the communication list. If not and you would like to be on the list, please e-mail to my address below.

Chris Charlwood

Retail Investor

[email protected]

604-718-2668 office

604-718-2638 fax

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