I think i eard President Obama yesterday saying only about $5 bln of the stimulus package has hit the street so far , so that money should start creating jobs and growth soon, and people should gain confidence from that , i mean the population . So some should start coming out of treasury as this confidence sips through to investors let say starting this summer , but a measure of caution should remain considering all that's been said and done , so as the market should rise this summer ( woops !) gold should remain relatively strong .

When the stimulus money starts wining down and we realise the economy is still weak , sometimes next fall i'd guess or in the winter of 09 ,and treasury starts looking suspicious with all the money printed out and some of the big lenders having reduced substantialy their portfolio in treasury ( China among others ) then people will look at gold with a growing interest .

The other factor that should weigh heavily on world economy , I mean besides the situation in the US by the end of the year, is the situation in europe lagging ( except for UK and east europe) that of the US, wich by that time should hamper any perspective of growth for europe in 2010 , thus leaving the US in a situation that could be worst then now in early 2010 putting the government between a rock and a hard place, that is having to chose between stimulating the creation of jobs or reigning in the deficit while facing a heavy debt servicing .

That's when inflation should start hitting and gold shooting up while the only place of growth on this planet will be asia , though in a weak measure thank's to inner growth and yuan strenghtening caused by their surpluses and their handling of this crisis now.

So i think this market should'nt fall comes summer time and gold won't fall either while we have a timid summer bull contrary to usual . Is it unrealistic to think that $5- $6 or more trillions of stimulus package across the world coming into play could'nt spur some market incentive in the summer ?

I know people are on holiday , i mean those who can afford it . Yea they're the same who crashed the economy , but maybe they'll check at the office once in a while anyway, and get some of the action while sipping their brandy at the beach just in case they'd miss something .

As for myself i'll blame this post on this cheap bottle of rhum and the sound of late traffic mixing up my mantra rhummmmmmmmmmmmmm .

G'night