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Message: Just a thought

Just a thought

posted on Oct 08, 2008 02:32AM

Apologies for the multiple post I had meant this for the Kimber board but posted it in TDC first in error

How have you all been rationalising the markets to yourself over this year? Are you deeply frustrated or just see whats happening in broad terms are your boxes being ticked. The reason I ask is that it appears that some on these boards have very ingrained beliefs that this whole economic situation will end in a classic goldbug scenario of a Hyperinflationary depression with peak Oil thrown in for good measure .

I like many started listening to FSN 4 years ago now and thought JP has it spot on so I loaded up with gold and silver bullion, didn’t get into shares at the time as I knew nothing about the industry, my education started here along with the usual goldbug sites but as I’m from Ireland I was always a bit suspicious of the extreme end of the goldbug wing as it appeared to have a heavy cultural bias. So I broadened out and started researching what other views were out there and people like Mish were invaluable at providing a counter point to JP and his outlook

Anyhoo when it comes down to it , to ownor not own gold silver oil etc is about making money or not losing it so I have parked most of the ideology and instead have developed a view based on what the market is telling me, and as of March or so this year I became uncomfortable with JP’s general outlook as it didn’t seem to confirm what I was seeing on the ground. So I took a more cautious approach I sold the juniors I had started buying and commenced shorting the senior gold stock and selling my silver as it looked to have been in a mini bubble at the time.

The lesson I have learned is to not get my beliefs and investments get too intermingled and that flat is an acceptable position at certain times in the market. Where things go to now, I know gold will do well in the future and that gold versus other assets will increase over the years ahead however I am perfectly happy if gold and the dow meet at 1000$ as opposed to the more inflationary outlook that some have

Btw I think over the next couple of months is a screaming buy for all gold assets and I have started buying juniors and a couple of near term producers as I can see that they will do very well over the coming years , I’m not convinced about silver and base metals anymore but I think why be greedy, I have most confidence in gold doing well so it would not be a real diversification to get into the other sectors

The upside if I am right? Lower input costs for mining companies that will then be rerated by the market as they will be one of the few profitable business classes around which will trickle down to the juniors and investment funds will flow back into this group. So as someone who has loaded up on Tyhee and am now accumulating Kimber, I think we will all do very well, if I’m wrong , I’ll still be right and gold will do even better

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