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Message: Beating

Re: Beating

in response to by
posted on Dec 03, 2009 11:48AM

Gentlemen,

Please do not lose your cool at this critical juncture. We have just had a massive breakout based on a powerful series of news releases. As you have seen, the gold market alone did not move Kimber. It took recognition by the market that the company's fundamentals had improved for the stock to move.

Breakouts of this mangnitude NEVER continue in a straight line. We moved from roughly .65 to $1.80 within 10 trading days, a 170% increase. Nothing moves in a straight line, and it is to be expected that no matter how strong the company fundamentals, certain short-term traders will take profits along the way. This is what you are seeing.

If you panic and let your temporary emotions overwhelm your reason and fundamental research, you will lose hold of this bull market and it will leave you in the dust. I don't want to see that happen.

I follow about 40 juniors and have been studying the patterns they take following intial breakouts, such as Kimber has seen. One example is pasted below and it is Terrane Metals (TRX.V). Now, they are fundamentally different companies, but they share some similarities: the market overlooked them for years, they did not respond to the rising gold price, yet when they released fundamental good news they took off like rockets. My example below is to show you what type of corrections are possible in the short term, after a company such as these breaks out:

You will see that in a mere 10 weeks, there were three separate corrections of 27%, 29%, and 32%, respectively. These are painful for those who bought at the short-term top. However, look at the net result: after 10 weeks, despite these corrections, the stock is up 500% from its breakout point. Anyone who got scared out during one of these short corrections because they failed to remember the company fundamentals lost big compared to if they had just held on.

So far Kimber has corrected from roughly $1.80 to $1.35, which is a 25% correction. This is nothing out of the ordinary. I am seeing some support at this level, and if that fails, then much stronger support around $1.10. A move back to $1.10 would scare the hell out of anyone who bought at $1.80 but would be a 39% correction, which I have seen over and over and over again in stocks that have these types of huge initial breakouts.

Anything can happen, and this is no guarantee, but if you believe in the company fundamentals and in a long-term rising gold price, I am showing you that such a correction is part of the process of realizing massive gains in the long run. Do not panic now and let this market get away from you.

Hysteria

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