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Message: Trying to make sense out of the falling knife of lithium prices.

Lithium prices fell 80% during the year 2023.  Not much of a surprise to those LAC and LAAC investors who still read posts on this Discussion Forum.  We have watched the share price slide down as if the slide was greased and someone at the top was pushing the sled down faster.  It has been a fast ride to the bottom during 2023.

So, what do the tea leaves show for 2024 regarding lithium prices?  Per usual, you can get any prediction you want from good to terrible on lithium pricing for this year.  I did a little bit of chair based research to see what would pop up on my computer screen.  Most prognostications were dismal for 2024, but not all.  I will post the links that I found according to positive in the first group and negative in the second:

 

POSITIVE:

 

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lithium-stocks-sell-off-broker-downgrade-based-price-outlook-below-marginal-cost-production

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/time-to-sift-through-lithium-wreckage-20231209-p5eqat

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/why-we-continue-see-higher-prices-lithium

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-market-expected-boom-2024-190000723.html

Sort of positive: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-02/lithium-prices-were-unsustainable-last-year-andrew-mille

Definitely positive specific to Lithium Americas:   https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/if-you-can-only-buy-one-lithium-stock-in-january-it-better-be-one-of-these-3-names-1032971480

https://investorplace.com/2023/11/the-lithium-market-is-expected-to-boom-in-2024-3-picks-to-profit/

Another "sort of positive" article:  https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lithium-market-set-to-rebound-in-2024-following-the-end-of-destocking-phase-3074495

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/the-3-best-lithium-stocks-to-buy-in-january-2024/ar-AA1mLBJh

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-lithium-stocks/

 

 

NEGATIVE:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2023/12/27/lithium-price-collapse-secures-green-transition-causes-headaches/?sh=39b7c6c44a61

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lithium-price-poised-further-decline-2024-analysts-2023-12-01/

https://www.mining.com/lithium-price-plummet-due-to-continue

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/albemarle-to-cut-staff-pause-expansions-amid-falling-lithium-prices/ar-AA1n7ypH

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cmes-lithium-contract-volumes-thrive-after-price-slump-2024-01-09/

https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-lithium-prices-to-tank-in-2024-amid-global-supply-surge

 

 

No consensus?

 

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/eye-on-lithium-the-consensus-is-there-s-no-consensus-on-when-lithium-prices-will-begin-to-rise-again/ar-AA1mkWzn

 

 

I repeat my earlier statement:   "Per usual, you can get any prediction you want from good to terrible on lithium pricing for this year."

 

OK, what about monitoring of lithium prices.  Benchmark is a paid site for info on lithium and since I do not have "discretionary funds" at the moment I bypassed that source.  I found some others and it is a little bit difficult to follow since different sources refer to different markets and the units vary.  You might be talking about price per kilogram in one place and price per metric ton in another.  And of course there are many different categories such as battery grade, pharmaceutical grade, non battery grade, etc. Some let you go back 2 to 5 years to look at the changes over time and some only show the most recent pricing.

 

https://www.metal.com/Lithium

https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/EV/LME-Lithium-Hydroxide-CIF-Fastmarkets-MB#Trading+day+summary

https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalprices.php?c=li&u=mt&d=1

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

 

Onward through the FOG!

 

Okiedo

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