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Message: Corona Virus.... a Monkey Wrench?

Cal, I meant to address in specific one of your statements:  "Unfortunately we did not lose two or three month, the damage to economy is much deeper and until vaccine comes online , confidence restores and consumers come back - lithium demand will lag"   Cal, I believe you are implying that we will probably lose more than 2 or 3 months delay in LAC going into production at Cauchari-Olaroz.  While I see that as a definite possibility I do think that there may be factors in development regarding prophylaxis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 that may counterbalance further extension of LAC production beyond that 3 month window.

 

I think we may have too much emphasis on vaccine development, not that it isn't important.  There is some very interesting work being done in both prophylaxis and in treatment options that may intercede long before the vaccine is safely released to the public.  I do think that someone will push a vaccine so fast that they will either get it approved by the FDA here in the US or by the regulatory body in another country ( probably China ) sometime later this year, however... and it is a big however.... there is a caution.  You know that anyone who buys the first model of a new line of automobile, one that has never been marketed before, seems to be destined to see the greatest number or screw ups and recalls to pay them back for being first in line.

 

  The same can occur when medical products are pushed through on a "Fast Track" basis in response to political pressure.  Politics and medicine are two different disciplines and usually they mix about as well as oil and water.  Medical decisions should always be made on the basis of what constitutes a good, safe and effective practice of medicine.  When political pressure is paramount disaster may not be far behind.  We have seen this happen before in the field of vaccine development.  There is a reason vaccines take so long to be developed and to go through the hoops of clinical trials before they are mass produced for wide public consumption.  That reason is two fold:  Efficacy and Safety.  Neither is more important than the other.  The same is true for any vaccine against SARS-CoV-2.

 

One of the exciting developments in the "other than vaccine" approach is Monoclonal Antibody Therapy.  There are some exciting developments going on in that area, but it isn't the only non vaccine approach showing promise.  What usually happens when medicine is challenged by a new pathogen is that in the process of weeding out solutions that don't work or that are more dangerous than efficacious is that quite often the first proposed solutions turn out to be Iron Pyrite in similarity:  Fool's Gold.  The press, of course, does what it always does and jumps on the first little glimmer of hope as if it were God's Gift to Medical Science.  Rarely do you see apologies from the authors of these scintilating pseudodirected initial press releases about flash in the pan remedies that never work.  They just move on to the next flash in the pan so called miracle solution until, wonder of wonder, they finally write about a development that has worked its way through the mine field of failures and actually is the key to the promise land.  Then, of course, there is no limit to their effusive hyperization of the real deal, with a convenient lack of memory for all the false channels they promoted before the real one made it through the pack.  We are seeing the same thing happen with SARS-CoV-2.  One of the sleepers, probably not even reported on by the press at this moment in time, but possibly reported on, will someday leave the rest of the wannabee horses behind and cross the finish line to provide a true light at the end of the SARS-CoV-2 tunnel and thus create a more positive outcome for all aspects of the economy, LAC just being one small example ( although huge in its value to we as LAC investors).    okiedo

 

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