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Message: Mosaic, Potash See Signs of Fertilizer Recovery

Mosaic, Potash See Signs of Fertilizer Recovery

posted on Dec 03, 2009 12:48PM
Mosaic, Potash See Signs of Fertilizer Recovery (Update3)

By Christopher Donville

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Mosaic Co. and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., North America’s largest fertilizer producers, are seeing signs of a recovery in demand for crop nutrients, executives said.

“Given favorable demand trends, attractive grain prices, lower input costs and growing confidence across the supply chain, it is not surprising that we are seeing early signs of a recovery,” Mosaic Chief Financial Officer Larry Stranghoener said today at the Citi Basic Materials Conference in New York. “This is especially true in the phosphate market right now, but there is also activity in the potash market.”

Global demand for crop nutrients crumbled after crop prices fell last year from record highs. Mosaic and Potash Corp. are among fertilizer producers betting on a resumption of demand as farmers try to boost crop yields by replenishing their soil.

“We’re seeing a return to a more confident customer, not only in North America, but around the world,” Bill Doyle, chief executive officer of Potash Corp., said at the conference.

Some distributors and farmers have deferred potash purchases because they expect prices for the form of potassium to fall after China resumes imports, potentially at lower prices, from Potash Corp. and other international producers.

Doyle reiterated he expects global shipments of potash to rebound to about 50 million metric tons in 2010 after “an unprecedented” decline this year. He previously estimated 2009 global shipments of about 30 million tons.

What’s more, potash “supply is likely to be challenged as demand returns,” he said.

Market Reaction

Mosaic shares rose the most in four months, and trading of bullish Mosaic options jumped to a three-month high as investors boosted wagers that the stock will extend its rally.

Mosaic climbed $4.52, or 7.9 percent, to $61.69 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest gain since July 16. The shares have gained 78 percent this year.

Potash, North America’s largest fertilizer producer by market value, rose C$7.07, or 5.8 percent, to C$128.73 in Toronto trading.

More than 63,000 calls giving the right to buy Mosaic shares changed hands, almost five times the four-week average and double the volume for puts giving the right to sell. The most active contracts were December $65 calls, which more than quadrupled to $1.35 and changed hands more than 8,800 times.

Before today those options had an open interest, or number of existing contracts, of 5,793, which indicates that investors are establishing fresh positions. This month’s options expire Dec. 18.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a_SGRoskXkqs

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