Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: AGM Color

I attended the AGM, but couldn't report until today. I don't have much to add as baba and kath have done a fine job of communicating the highlights.

As for the option issue, I personally voted against, but am not surprised by what has happened. Pissed, frustrated YES, but not surprised. This is how the game is played, especially in Silicon Valley. Someone once said that making a killing in the stock market is really only for the professionals (C-suite, lawyers, bankers etc.) on the inside. Shareholders take all the risk and get to go for a ride. Nuff said.

I brought a friend who is a tech entrepreneur, and his reaction to the presentation was: "I have sat thru hundreds of meetings and I know when people are bluffing or full of s..t, and those guys are as serious as a heart attack. I'm IN!"

I personally spoke to Ajit after the presentation, and I said that I was there to make sure I understood what was said at the THM in regard to the denselight and BB mergers. He said consistency of the message is very important and that they are committed to always telling the truth.

He said that after the denselight buyout, the industry people were all jealous, that they understood where this is going, and poet got the prize for a song. (Suresh had said that the mergers were easy because the denselight people had the identical vision: complete market disruption thru optical integration).

Ajit also said that suresh is working 26 hours a day.

I also spoke to Yee-Loy Lam, the CTO of denselight. (He's the brains behind their tech). He told me that he wanted to come to the top US engineering school to do his Ph.D. and he chose U. of Michigan (my alma mater), and chose photonics because he wanted to study where cutting edge technology would be in 15 years. Just another human who thinks on a different plane than you and me.

Subhash said that they would never have a NR for "me too" VCSEL performance. What would be the point? Hence the detector was worth reporting, and it is taking longer to get the VCSEL fully optimized and crushing the competition. This has to happen before they can commence with the unprecedented full integration. VCSEL optimization milestone was Q2, and Ajit gave them "two weeks" of wiggle room during the THM. So I am going to give them two more and say VCSEL optimization by July 31. One month late.

The next step, the integration, is the biggest milestone of all, and was previously given Q3 guidance. Suresh was visibly upset about the fact that someone asked when, and he refused to answer. Upset because he wanted to answer. But he knows that it's important to say things that end up being true, and Q2 is over, and the VCSEL is technically late. He muttered, sheepishly "soon", as in, I know that is unsatisfactory, but that's all I can say.

It was clear that NRE is hinging on the full integration being complete. Nobody is going to step up until that milestone is DONE. Makes sense to me. I am guessing/assuming that full integration will be announced in Q4. And therefore "10 months for NRE" is about giving themselves plenty of leeway for making deals after. Maybe it ties into rolling out the AOC? That if the AOC is out (Q1), that that somehow gives them leverage for NRE deals? I am just thinking out loud.

Sorry for being all over the place, but baba's first full post was pretty clear and comprehensive.

Oh hey, big shout out to kath for asking "VCSEL schmicsel, I don't get it?" Not technically minded, and clearly not comfortable speaking publicly, she forced suresh to explain in the simplest terms how the pieces fit together. I am sure that she wasn't the only one to go "aha! Now I get it." And the question helped flesh out their explanation of individual optimization as a precursor to integration.

In sum, I would like to leave you with a thought: they have a strategy, they are on the path. If the market had been closed for the past 12 months, (the time current management has been in place) would any of us be fretting about the execution of the strategy? When you hear what they are saying, are things making sense? Is the path clear? The denselight acquisition was about pulling the future forward. Suresh said "it is far harder to move sales from zero to $5M, than from $5M to $25M." In one deal they just got a full set of customers, a working fab, and another brain trust with the identical vision.

If we could just take our gosh darn eyeballs off the stock chart long enough to think straight. Stop looking to the market for validation. Poet has no sponsorship (IBK excepted). Without it, PC selling or whatever hits hard. It has nothing to do with what what is going on in the company. I personally don't think there will be a lasting bottom until full integration. I will just wait with the patience of Job. Peace.

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