Re: BIG
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 19, 2019 11:41AM
Jack when is the last time that you have heard any company executives use those words?
Since TM has joined the company he has been very adamant that this kind of language is in the past and they are very aware of the need to avoid inflating the future prospects of this company. To be clear I have been blasted at times for misrepresenting investor presentation statements related to revenue potential which I have passed on as corrections to this forum. Particularly as it relates to the Serviceable Available Market.
An example of this effort is seen in this post by Andech. Eating someone’s lunch has not been mentioned once (maybe we should leave those kinds of statements in the past where they belong):
posted on Dec 02, 2018 05:31AM
Poet management was so kind to explain me, how the revenue guidance 2019 and the single customer SAM - example we have got in HCW presentation , fit together.
I thought I could share with you their very helpful specifications, as they specify the TAM, SOM, SAM revenue guidance topic along the POET products.
As we have got for the very first time a revenue guidance , I think it is very helpful for the understanding of the timeslines and product ranges:
"Dear .....
(....) First - let me start with the picture below :
However - if our development plan first only produces a 100G CWDM, then the "OBTAINABLE" portion of the SAM is smaller. Further - POET will not immediately garner a 100% market share at any customer no matter how competitive we are. The first thing many customers will do is to take our pricing to their existing suppliers and have them match it. I am sure you do it when you are shopping. That is why - having a source of architectural cost disruption is important. We expect our share to grow over time - once we are proven to be a reliable supplier and have the demonstrated ability to scale our supply to the industry demand.
to be realistic the SOM needs to factor in:
Now back to the first point you were making. The SAM presented is correct and represents the total opportunity for TROE (transmit and receive optical engines) across multiple applications at a single customer.
If for example, the only thing you have is a "receive optical engine" - obviously that is a fraction of the SAM. The revenue guidance is a fraction of the SOM - recognizing that we are not yet sampling complete TROE and the qualification time period is NON-ZERO. We have gone to great lengths to discuss the qualification period - it can take anywhere from 6-12 months depending on the application. And thereafter - it will be a ramp - not a step.
Furthermore, it is important to point out that we have NEVER provided hard revenue guidance recently. It was always either revenue potential (which is another way of stating the SAM) or SAM ... that is what is the potential or SAM.
I hope this can be clarified. We as management want to be candid - but our attempts at transparency are often misinterpreted and then expectations are set based on these misinterpretations."
(....)