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Message: Cisco optics – your opinion please

Hi Baba, fair comment, but lets scan the landscape.

Due to ongoing secrecy, perhaps its better to try and eliminate who its not, rather than try and identify who it is. 

As shown on page 16 the company's latest presentation they intend to jump across traditional optical packinging players and deal directly with tier 1 suppliers.  IMO, there is no reason to think our tier 1 does not appear somewhere on this list, but I suppose it is possible they have purposely omitted it to keep everyone in the dark.

I've listed the companies below and ordered into annual revenue.  According to management, we are dealing with a "massive" north american networking company so Huawei is struck off the list, the remainder being US companies.

My definition of "massive" is 10's of billions in revenue and 10's of thousands of employees, others may disagree.  I see 2 on the list that satisfy my criteria, Cisco and Broadcom.  Molex could qualify on employees, but not so much on revenue.  Based on this, I don't think its a stretch to suggest there's a reasonable chance, if not a good one, it could be Cisco.  Even if our massive tier 1 is missing from the the list, there's still fewer than a handful of possibilities, so maybe 1 in 3 or 4 that its Cisco, not terrible odds in my mind.

Of course, critical feedback on my simplistic analysis and/or additions to the list of possible tier 1's welcome!

 

Modules and Systems Suppliers, OTC Virtual Presentation (p16)

Company

Employees

Revenue (USD)

Huawei

194000

$123B

Cisco

76000

$50B

Broadcom

15000

$21B

Molex

36000

$3.6B

Arista

2300

$2.4B

Delta

200

$24M

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