Fogg, you did not come to the appropriate place for answers. This forum specializes in theories.  

One would think, with all the cmvarious theories, one would be proven correct eventually.  Can't always count on that; I remember that many theories, and quite diverse at that, were offered as to what the company was up to right before the acquisitions of DL and Bill Ring's company (my memory is sooo good).  It was clear something was up!  No one came up with an acquisition or two as being the impending news!

But usually someone nails it, so you just need to handicap the entrants and back your favorite!  And, oh, there is no payoff for place or show, win betting only!