You very likely will win , and the payoff of the bet is  massively in your favour.

  Given a normal distibution of share prices, the chances of being 4 or more standard deviations out of the expected fair future price is small and therefore a  fairer bet was 1 bottle of west coast plonk to about 30 bottles of  east coast skreech if you lost.

But we will all be winners if it gets there in any case, so all will end well.