Re: Chart showing the convergence of the 50 & 200 DMAs....
in response toby
Top-Line Data Expected September 2019 for BETonMACE Phase 3 Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial for Apabetalone
When I was going over this current convergence I did look back to that period in April and I discounted it. Looking over it again I drew the chart out a little further and the PPS started trading back then in this same 200 day support 50 day resistance type channel.....
However the big difference I see between now and then, is that back in that Feb to April period of 2018 the 50 DMA was moving decidedly lower. The 50 DMA started Feb up around $1.90 but my April, just before the PPS dropped on the "proposed" offering news, the 50 had fallen all the way below $1.80....about a 12 cent drop in that key moving average.
Contrast that with the current situation...for all of Jan/Feb and the 6 trading days of March, the 50 has been much flatter...about a one cent deviatation between $3.17 and $3.18....not the 12 cents it dropped in Feb/March and about half of April of 2018.
At the time that they announced that "proposed" share offering....I posted that if it didn't go through, that I would have some things to say about it. I don't think I ever expressed my view specifically about that event.....but it rather conveniently led to a big spike in short selling that tanked the PPS....and just a couple months later when they announced the offering was off the table, that was the seeming catalyst which started us on a run that culimnated with the PPS climbing to $4+ by Sept.
Quite frankly I think it was dirty pool....plain and simple. And likewise all the forecasted end dates and lack of clarity on when is a MACE a MACE, I consider it also to be equally dirty pool. Even the stated expectation of further subscriptions within 30 days (no BDZ, the exempt distributions don't count in my books)....the failure to meet that expectation or to provide any communication...that is also dirty pool.
To me its all part of a narrative that speaks to me and says ACCUMULATION. While we the mushrooms watch and wait....I do think there are other players trying very hard to accumulate sizeable positions. This has been my thesis here since I climbed on board early in 2014....based on fundamental realities and by the price volume movement over the past 5+ years.
The difference now, I believe, is that we're too close to the end....and that's why I think things have tightened up so much....Its my opinion that market forces have squeezed just about every possible ounce of water out of this rock and while there is likely still a fairly decent sized retail position that some would dearly love to shake free, that there just isn't any more time.
We shall see....its a thesis. And if I'm right (along with many others who think there's a very good chance of the PPS exploding higher, just look at the contest numbers)....even if my thesis is right, I will never be able to prove it because the market forces I believe are at work, the players behind them would never stand up at the end and say...."yeah, that guy was right....we were messing with y'all and hoping you would sell to us cheap".
I'm sanguine about it now....and even though I know that in order to operate effeciently this has to happen in a market, it still gets under my skin sometimes. Obviously for some to be able to buy low, there have to be shareholders willing to let go of their shares....and then same in reverse...if market forces want retailers to buy high, they need the bleach crowd to think they're getting a bargain when in fact they're paying top dollar.
Anyway....I've drawn my line, I figure we've got about 2 weeks before this flag or pennant (pick the term you like) gets too tight to be sustained....I might be off by a week, but I doubt it.
Cheers, next time I write on here it should be with a nice tan again....unless I chime in on Sunday before heading out early Monday morning.