GAC - have to confess that I too sold some RVX in favor of the $4.60 warrants.  It was just too tempting to reduce some financial risk without reducing the overall number of shares.  4 years out is a long time and the downside financial risk on the cost of the warrants is just not as significant if things go south.  If we do get somewhere around the median number quoted in the contest then I'll gladly pay the $4.60....plus what was already paid for the warrants of course.  As long as these warrants are out there it will likely be a drag on the SP until topline when hopefully it will all come good.

On another note, I was skimming through a study done on the success rate of clinical trials for the period from 2006-2015.  I won't go into the details as they are above my paygrade. Others on this board will have more insight than me and more familiar with these kinds of studies.  In general though, it seems that if you take oncology trials out of the equation then the success rate is better for other indications.  For cardiovascular Phase 3 - NDA it was about 55%.  Other studies may have slightly higher rates.  Here's the link so you can study for yourself.  Hopefully it shows up as a hyperlink.  

https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf

In any case, having some sense of the history may help to better determine the liklihood of success going forward.  If anyone has a better grid for what one can conclude from all this I'm all ears.