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Message: Current Prices for shares and warrants

My thoughts......

I considered selling more shares to buy more warrants but stopped when the warrant position stood at 20% of my overall position.  Just seemed more prudent somehow.  I don't plan to sell anything until after the full data release at the earliest.  If the primary endpoint is positive then the investment is at the very least secure so no harm in waiting to see how that plays out.  My view is that is where returns will be maximized if you're long on the stock.

I suppose the main reason I didn't accumulate more warrants at the expense of the shares is that, in the event of a buyout by some BP, you are in a better position with the shares than with the warrants (in terms of how they might be valued).  If topline is positive I might convert the warrants to shares in anticipation of a buyout.  If topline isn't positive then there is less exposure with the warrants than with the shares.  Others may have a different philosophy that is equally if not more valid.

For a company that has near-term potential that RVX does both the shares and warrants are a bargain at current prices.  If the primary endpoint is not achieved then I plan to continue holding the stock because you just don't know what can happen over the next 2-3 years.  Better to not follow the herd the morning after a negative topline if you can wait it out.

Unless you're on margin (perhaps unlikely now that the stock is under $3) or shorting the stock or playing some other game then the current SP is meaningless.  It's really all about the result of the trial....IMO.

tick tock..... 

 

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