Today, the stock went to a new low and yet closed up. Classic bottom of the market reversal.
The volumes have been dying down too...a sign that whoever is selling, is running out of shares to sell. If they were selling shares to buy the warrants...well, the warrants are quite expensive, and hard to buy. So the default has to be stop selling shares...indeed to buy the shares!
RSI at 32. Very oversold. DMI at -27, which suggests a negative picture, can easily run up above -25 and switch to neutral momentum.
The warrants keep rallying. Now at $1.18, they are trading at 108% premium to the shares. At some point, the shares have to rally too. Also, the volumes in the warrants is also drying up...so to keep buying them, you need to keep paying ever higher prices. At an offer of $1.25, that suggest s a rough breakeven of $5.85. Compare that to buying at the share price which is half that.
Even the less liquid warrants issued much earlier, are at $1.95 suggesting a rough breakeven at $4. But given the extremely low volume on this one, it is difficult to ascribe any signal to this market price.
On balance volumes are back to levels last seen in August 2018! Wow!!! I would say that suggests all the nervous nellies are gone.
Fibonacci retracement to 38% came in at $2.57, which we almost hit today at $2.62. And bounced. The 50% retracement comes in at $3.03. That is easy to get back to. The 62% comes in at $3.48. I am guessing we can go back all the way to $3.48 by June 30. After all, we are probabaly no more than 6 to 8 weeks from top line. Some optimism will start creeping in soon...particularly after July 8 when we get an update.
The daily moving averages come in at $3.58 (50 day), $3.41 (100 day) and $3.34 (200 day). The weekly averages are $3.25 (50 week), $2.46 (100 week) and $2.06 (200 week). So the short term investors are underwater, while the long term investors (more than 50 week) are down, but not out.
The chatter volumes on Agoracom keeps climbing higher. I take that as a bullish sign. Sentiment is definitely not down, even if the share price is down.
And I have not even talked about the fundamental picture...which is a company at the end of the finish line on momentous Phase 3 results!
In short, a slow and steady recovery in RVX share price should start on Monday. May the buying begin!