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Message: Re: Insider Selling
Cancundude - Your point is well taken about the oxymoron although when you combine info from many posts and articles, tundup’s claims are starting to show at least a little credibility. I have posted on this Alzhiemers/cognitive function slant a few times in the past. The article that KK2 linked us to this morning may be helping to bring a little more clarity to both tundup’s previous posts as well as mine.
From the article, Rudolph Tanzi theorizes that it is neuroinflammation that is killing the bulk of the nerve cells that leads to dementia. Further down in the article it mentions amyloid plaques but that a recent trial targeting them has failed. Tanzi further theorizes that going after the plaques after they have formed is to late. If there is any relevance to that theory it may be playing right into the hand of ABL. To quote Tanzi “It's inflammation that's allowing the fire to rage out of control” "If you want to hit the plaques, you have to do so early on with early detection". Now enters ABL with its multimodal effect. Drugs on the market now either don't reach the brain, or come with other risks associated with long-term use, like increased risk for heart attack, stroke and stomach ulcers. The big question is what is the Blood Brain Barrier allowing to cross it and what is it stopping.
Nerotrope’s drug, bryostatin-1 works by activating a protein involved with the “wiring”of the brain. It induces the regeneration of wiring and synaptic networks that are lost, prevents neuronal death and is also significantly anti-inflammatory. To quote Maria Carrillo, chief science officer at the Alzheimer's Association "Today's science tells us there might be as many as four or five other proteins that are going wrong, contributing to the cell death we experience in Alzheimer's dementia". This brings it all back to the beginning of the ABL circle and the multimodal effect.
One of the things I found interesting in this article is that Tanzi says there are 5 million people in the US with Alzheimer’s while the Alzheimer’s Association says 5.8 million people. 800,000 is a big difference when you are doing pricing and cashflow models. What’s even more interesting is that the Alzheimer’s Association is predicting that number to grow to 14 million by 2050. When looking at the demographics of North America we see that the leading edge of the baby boom is now around 73 years old and the trailing edge is around 58. Given that Pig In The Python, it is more likely to have the 14 million Alzheimer’s patients 10 years earlier in 2040 and not 2050. That’s only 20.5 years away now, less than 1 generation.
My curiosity has gotten the better of me on a number of occasions over the last 18 or 20 months. Most of the Alzheimer’s trials that were performed in the past(all of the past) have failed and taken many billions off of the market caps of the companies that announced those failing results. RVX said nothing at all about the Alzheimer’s/dementia sub study within this BoM trial for about the first 2.5 years of the trial and then beginning around Feb/Mar 2018 they started to talk about it. Since then there has been a significant increase in what the company is saying about cognitive function in general without specifically referring to the BoM trial. Why would they bring attention to an area of study that is a sub study, that could have a very negative impact on the share price when they had the opportunity to say nothing at all? I don’t think it was blinded data that they had access to but there was definitely something, some information that they have gleaned along the way that is encouraging them to crow about this dementia angle of BoM every chance they get now.
We have just a few weeks now until the Top Line results will be out. Hopefully we will hear info about the 2 sub studies at that time but if we have to wait a couple of months longer until the full trial data is presented that’s okay too.
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