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Phase 3 BETonMACE Trial is Now Completed. Cognition and CKD Sub-Study Results to be Announced Soon.
Message: Re: New Share Price Contest update to Oct 12th
First, the drug is "safe enough for chronic drug use". Which means getting additional patients for any extra trial will be very quick and therefore not an issue.
Second, if the Kaplan Meier curves separate consistently, then it will become a simple statistical calculation to figure out how many more patient years are needed to get a 95% confidence interval. So add another 2 to 3 years to final drug approval for potentially a multi billion dollar drug.
Third, it will come back to what the FDA thinks. For the FDA to agree with my line of thinking (drug works and only needs more patient years data), the supporting bio marker and independent risk factors data have to show efficacy effects.
In summary, it will come down to what Professor Ray tells us at the AHA. Based on DM's "data data data" quote in the conference call, I am assuming the data will be very supportive.
The data will also get a big pharma to make a bid for RVX. The price will depend on what the FDA's verdict is, so the buyout talk should start almost immediately after Nov 16.
But you are right in an indirect way...RVX will need to raise some cash to get the next few months...an equity raise will come soon after Nov 16 IMHO. After that...a buy out by March end? Price to depend on what the FDA tells RVX.
Note this is not a forecast for Nov 19.
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