Re: New Share Price Contest update to Oct 12th
in response toby
"$10 for the cardio, $10 for CKD, $10 for Cognition" KIPK
"My thought process is similar Kipk." BDAZ
Ditto. So many variables and so little reaction time. IMO, the contest doesn't allow enough time for market digestion and full reaction by all players especially the deeper-pocketed and slower-reacting institutional money. My share price prediction for Nov 19 therefore is based on the assumption that we get only a couple of sub-group successes and limited headlines so I'm going with only $2.85.
A couple of months out however, with more market digestion of data and top publications, and especially with a spreading "buzz" about ALP findings, and I think the SP could easily go double digit. Its because there is absolutely nothing under the sun that comes close to touching ALP levels and there is rapidly growing evidence that reducing ALP is the "linch pin" to reducing MACE in CKD, CVD and cognition.
Despite the missed primary endpoint, the drug is so safe and effective at reducing multiple inflammation markers, reducing ALP and increasing eGFR that it might warrant expedited FDA approval (perhaps without further trials due to great drug safety - maybe?) . In that scenario my SP prediction a couple of months out is a little north of my original contest price prediction of $22.50.
Just my to cents.