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Message: Buyers need sellers....why I think delivery failures are important

I see definite potential for a perfect storm next week....and the delivery failures I believe are likely the reason for the lower volume of late.  After the Oct 31st AGM and presentation volume shot up to 677K on November 1st, then 324K on Monday Nov. 4th.  After that volume pretty much collapsed, just 58K then 52K followed by 92K and then yesterday's 141K.

So in the two days immediately following Don's presentation a little over 1 million shares total traded hands.  Then in the four subsequent days the total dropped to less than 350K.  

Why the huge drop in trading? 

I believe the likely reason is because those who'd been short selling RVX, that they were no longer able to locate shares.  We all know that trades have 2 days to settle.  That means someone going short has 2 days after selling to deliver the shares they've sold....and if they're not available, oh well....the TSX Buy-In facilty takes over as we saw with that 10K trade on Friday.  

Now we're heading into a potentially pivotal week....an FDA meeting on Wednesday, and data/data/data on Saturday.  And during this coming week, any buying that happens...MMs imo are likely going to have to start raising their bids if they hope to find willing sellers because the option of going short to satisfy demand I believe is largely off the table.  

 

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