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Message: SF = Bullish on Cognitive

As many of you know, my family has been directly affected by Alzheimer’s Disease.   Thus, I know the near total lack of effective treatments for that dread and horrible disease.   In fact, in my person opinion there actually is indeed a total lack of any treatment that makes a meaningful difference.   It’s very sad, no doubt. 

Because this disease has proven so difficult to impact, I have not been particularly bullish about the cognitive data. 

But today’s quote from the doctor (“very promising”) has me confident that the news this week will be positive.   Add to that the warrant financing arrangements, and I think that Friday starts to look pretty darn good in terms of whether we will get good news vs. bad news.

What I don’t (think I) know is this:   How clear the data will be, just how positive it will be (mild improvement or strong results), and also what the p value will be.  That being said, I’m expecting some level of positive news.  

In my view, the bar is not set high by other treatments.   And even a mild cognitive improvement has to be viewed in context.  My opinion at this point is that this drug generally improves MACE outcomes, kidney eGFR, and (as I expect we will see) cognitive function in a group of very sick people.  People that don’t have viable alternatives.

To me, this could bode well for regulatory approval.   And this is a drug that a very large group of people will want to take.    I’ve spent a lot of time With Senior Citizens since my parents retired in the 90s.   I love older people and love learning from them.   There have been a lot of people I know who have felt an impact on cognitive health. Including 2 friends recently diagnosed.

People will be lining up their walkers for this new drug.  That’s my best guess now.   DYODD!   But I for one am quite excited for Friday!   And I am expecting a sale of the company or formula some time during 2020.   Pretty exciting!





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