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Message: Battery Shortages Are Already A Problem, And Electric Car Waiting Lists Are Becoming The Norm
  • Reports of battery supply constraints in 2019 and electric car waiting lists. Evidence from Tesla, Audi, Hyundai, LG Chem and SK Innovation.
  • Bloomberg now says electric cars will be cost competitive with ICE starting from 2022, Deloitte says as of 2021 in the UK and globally by 2022.
  • Positive cycle: Cheaper electric cars boost demand ---> higher demand (sales volumes) leads to even cheaper electric cars --> even higher demand for electric cars.

Electric Car Waiting Lists Are Becoming The Norm

Waiting lists for electric cars really only started with the launch of Tesla (TSLA) Model 3 and the ~400,000 order waiting list that quickly followed. This was mostly due to the car being presented as an affordable electric car at a starting price tag of USD 35,000. In more recent times, even the luxury Porsche Taycan has achieved a 20,000 waiting list.

Porsche Taycan already has a 20,000 waiting list

Source: The Drive

On February 19 Evans Electric tweeted:

Current electric car waiting lists: Hyundai Ioniq EV - 1 year, Nissan Leaf - 10 months, VW eGolf - 8 months, Renault Zoe - 8 months, Kia Soul EV - 6 months, VW eUp - 6 months, BMW i3 - 3 months. There's no lack of EV demand but supply.

Note: The General Motors (GM) Chevy Bolt also had significant waiting lists.

The reason for the often long waiting lists has been that car companies cannot make the cars quick enough to meet demand. The bottleneck has mostly been with battery production. Battery production has been constrained due to not enough battery building capacity, and also in some cases with problems sourcing enough battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel. The latter was evidenced by large price spikes in metal prices mostly in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, we saw enough new supply come online that most EV metal prices fell back, but mostly remain above their long-term averages.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269216-battery-shortages-already-problem-electric-car-waiting-lists-becoming-norm

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