Assume $900 gold, $450/oz cash costs, 60k ounces hedged @ $800/oz per year and 100k ounce unhedged, they still cash flow $66MM profit. Producers are valued at 10x cash flow, giving us a Market Cap of $660MM.
That's a 75% gain from current
valuation. So at the very least hang on until $5/share which is a no-brainer.
Fast forward to 2010, and cash costs drop to $390/oz, Gold at $1200 gives us a cash flow of $105MM and a mcap of $1 Billion.
Aside from awesome
management, a fully permitted mine, blue sky potential, factor in that when the mania comes and gold goes to the moon, this is gonna pop even more than these conservative numbers.
I think of this play more as a conservative play like the majors but with the upside potential of a junior so it's a sweet spot. It'll double by this time next year.