Your concerns are the same concerns most of us here have - equity dilution. There are a few ways this plays out:
1. They try to raise $240mm in equity at these levels. I think this is very unlikely - there's no reason for them to do this as they have plenty of cash in the bank and can burn through hundreds of millions in debt before they raise another dime here.
2. They raise $240mm in equity down the road as the share price appreciates (due to financing being sorted out and as construction risk declines). This makes the equity calculations more bearable.
3. The understanding I have is that AfrEximBank and another African development bank are providing 65% debt. They cannot provide more due to their own regulatory requirements (eg they are simply not permitted to loan more as part of their mandate). Where it gets interesting is Farhad has stated another (unnamed) lender with deep pockets is looking to loan the company ~$100 million (I think I have that figure right). There is also fairly firm evidence that Export Development Canada will be involved. Potentially then, the equity raise only needs to be $120mm (which includes significant contingency funds).
The best case scenario is something along the lines of EDC bridging the equity gap, the project being built on budget without the need for contingency and Allana starting pre-production ahead of schedule and paying out the rest of their equity committment from potash revenues, negating the need for any more dilution (aside from already issued warrants, share options, etc).
4. Other scenarios are possible, but there has never been any indication of such - such as royalty streams, JVs, etc. Some of these scenarios are not really feasible or likely, but there are other financing options out there.
IMO, from current levels and assuming this makes it to production (all signs point to yes) you can expect at least 300% from current levels except in scenario #1. But there is no reason for scenario #1 and Farhad has come out to say they do not need to raise all the equity at once or even up front.
