Thanks, Tom, for your post. I agree that the long term prospects for a lithium deficit vs supply seems pretty good and I have already posted some thoughts about that Supply vs Demand situation. My concern, and probably that of some others as well, is about the definition of "long term".
Toyota seems adamant about doing what it can to end the rise of BEVs, even though they still make some and continue to make Plug In Hybrid Evs. Toyota is gambling on the superiority of H2 as a fuel to replace Lithium Batteries and ICE cars as well. They are pounding home the message that the hydrocarbon output of the H2 engines is as close as possible to Net Zero hydrocarbon emissions and that the handling of H2 powered cars equates or exceeds that of ICE powered automobiles. They are also touting the safety profile and that is made easier by the fact that nearly all of the people in the world who read in their daily newspaper and listened to their radio about the Hindenburg tragedy in Lakehurst, New Jersey are long dead so the generations X,Y, Z, X2 and so forth have no appreciation for the flammability and explosive possibilities when using hydrogen as a fuel and that ignorance allows them to lap up the concept of driving while sitting on a tank of hydrogen without question. On the other hand, driving with gasoline in the tank is also a potential bomb situation. Just ask any surviving Ford Pinto drivers, eh?
Toyota is a driving force now and for the future so they very well may convert the automobile buying public to abandon ICE and BEVs/PHEVs in favor of H2 powered cars and trucks.
Here's Why Toyota's New Hydrogen Engine is the Future (Goodbye Tesla) (youtube.com)
Actually, despite the name of that YouTube video the video actually surmizes that Hydrogen powered cars are not all that great, but this video focuses on Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered cars and Toyota is working to produce both a Fuel Cell option and a hydrogen powered engine so as to give the consumer 2 different technological choices when it comes to using Hydrogen as the fuel source.
Toyota's Upcoming Hydrogen-Powered 5.0 V-8 Engine Has The Potential To Bury EVs (topspeed.com)
The link below shows both Pro and Con views about Hydrogen powered cars in Australia. It emphasizes that if Hydrogen were to get down in price to $2 per Kilogram vs the current range of from $7 per Kg to $16 per Kg then the future of Hydrogen powered cars would be secure however at the present time the fuel costs of hydrogen powered cars are similar to those of the fuel costs for ICE powered cars.
Toyota is pushing hydrogen cars but will they ever be as cheap to run as EVs? - ABC News
The Guardian had a critical view of the future of hydrogen cars vs ICE cars:
Will hydrogen overtake batteries in the race for zero-emission cars? | Automotive industry | The Guardian
Dr. Gill Pratt, Toyota's Chief Scientist, says we need both BEVs and Hydrogen powered cars:
Toyota's Chief Scientist on Hydrogen vs. Lithium-Ion Batteries & Why We Need Both (theautochannel.com)
OK, the whole field of hydrogen powered cars vs ICE powered cars vs BEVs has advocates strongly vocal about each approach.
If nothing else, it does illustrate that technology moves forward and that means that there will be threats to the leadership of lithium powered BEVs at every step of the way. So, just how long Lithium will be the chief threat to the dominance of ICE vehicles is a question mark. Lithium as a fuel source will undoubtedly "someday" fizzle out, so the central question would be: "How long will Lithium retain its position as the chief challenger to ICE powered vehicles before some other technology knocks off lithium from that position?"
No one knows. Just another example of "the FOG" facing all LAC and LAAC investors and, for that matter, any investor of any lithium mining company and/or of any EV manufacturer who doesn't keep his options open to new technological developments. Right now a lot of car manufacturers are betting that Toyota's dream of displacing BEVs with H2 powered cars will end up being a nightmare for Toyota. On the other hand, a lot of people in the past have underestimated Toyota.
FOG!
Okiedo
