HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: An argument for the Long Haul

An argument for the Long Haul

posted on Sep 24, 2007 02:02PM

I know that many are a little anxious about the upcoming days and weeks. I received two calls today from colleagues looking for reassurance. I think the this natural when money "dissappears" from a portfolio" because of a lower share price.

We should begin to think about the question of "what happens after Hole 5"? I know that many will take some profits, some will sell all, and a few may keep holding. I am sure I will sell a couple of thousand to celebrate when this jumps over the $6 - $7 mark. Just to keep the wife happy.

But the question begs to ask itself - "What happens later?"

We know Windfall will take awhile. The other will have news as their assays come in. But the momentum will at some point take a breather.

It is at that point that fundamentals are important.

For some, the events of the last few weeks are akin to winning the lottery. I can say from experience that the rapid rise in share prices are not an everyday occurence. While some stocks can gain 25 - 50% fairly easily, the 10X baggers are a little more rare. But not as rare as most people think. What is really rare is the 100X bagger.

Many on here believe that Noront could become not only a 100X bagger from where it was a year ago, but possibly a 500X bagger. Last year around this time, Noront had a market cap of under 10M dollars. At $5, the market cap is 600M dollars. That is a 60 x increase. Now I know that there was a 50% dilution with financing and warrants, so the real bagger value is closer to 40X from that price. From $1, the bagger value is 5X. What a difference it makes to stick with a company from .15 for many years rather than jump in at volume.

But after $5, what happens? The company will need some good reserves to take this to the next level. Voisey Bay sold for over $4B in the 90s when nickel and copper were trading at 25% of what are today. I cannot say that Noront will have the same tonnage as Voisey, but do they need to? Even if they have 25% of the tonnage at today's prices, they should have a market value of $6B, or $50 a share. Now we have a 400X bagger, or a 50x bagger for those in at $1.

What is needed? Some similar grades. 1/4 of the tonnage. Prices to remain at 4x what they were in the 90s.

The excellent part of this is that while grades and tonnage cannot be changed, prices can. Nickel and copper are about to see a surge in demand. For those who don't know, these are two key metals for the production of a hybrid car. China has a large requirement for these types of cares due to their environmental problems. As their country becomes more successful, so will their demand for cars increase. And it will be hybrid cars.

It should be noted that the values above are just for James Bay. We cannot extrapolate its worth as ramp bulk sampling is required to establish reserve estimates (tonnage) due to the geology of the area. We do know that one hole returned values of 52.3 oz/tonne of gold over 4.8 metres. To put this into perspective, a viable mine only requires good tonnage with grades of .3 ounces/tonne of gold over 4 metres. So you can see why we are excited about Windfall.

Gold has risen in value 24% in the past 12 months. It continues to rise. Optimists on wall street have Gold hitting $2000 by 2011. Could be a stretch, but who would have though that four years ago when the CDN dollar was at 1.50 to the US that we would now be at parity?

So with Windfall, we have another possible multiplication factor to the shareprice. I know it is a longshot in the junior mining industry for one company to have two bonanza properties in one year, but if it holds to be true, we could see that 1000X bagger value from when the share price was .15 cents. That is $150 a share.

That is the big picture that the longs are taking. There are a lot of junior stocks out there where you can make a quick 25 - 50% over 3 months. But there are very few with this kind of potential given todays Gold, Nickel, and Copper prices. (plus the plat, palad, MolyB, Tungs, Lead, ...)

So hold your head high if you are a long. Most of us sleep well in that we don't day trade and hold for the long term results. I have seen it all in the ten months with Noront, even the bash fest we have had of late (after Windfall last December). What I haven't seen is bonanza grades from two different properties at once.

This will be a fun year folks.

Truly long and strong.

M1.

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