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Message: Back from Vacation

Back from Vacation

posted on Apr 07, 2009 11:09AM

Hi all,

I was away in Honolulu for a couple of weeks but was able to catch the Premier AGM web cast as I was outside of North America (the land mass at least :)

First off, I like many others who own Oilexco stock were shocked at the low bid price that it seems Ernst and Young accepted for the ONSL assets. As presented during their AGM, they essentially reviewed the technical material for the assets currently in production and valued their bid based only on those production assets. During the presentation and the Q&A, the stated that both the near production Shelley property (tied up with very expensive contracts with Voyageur Sevan) and the potentially huge Huntington exploration properties were valued at zero for the purposes of the bid.

While many of us know that OilExco (the parent company to ONSL) had no room to move due to the shares of OilExco being granted as security to RBS for the credit facility, what I didn't expect is that a major like Taqa did not take a run at the assets. The other shocker was how this was annouced. Through the purchaser rather than either OilExco, who had no knowledge of the deal, or Ernst and Young UK who put the deal together.

Regardless, the news was bad given what we know today yet the share price refuses to fall below the 10 cents mark. This is close to the same mark that I issued my previous strong buy recommendation last month. I did not sell during the run up to either .18 cents or .28 cents, as the risk to reward ratio was too great to pass up. Regardless, I have sold off 75% of my holdings at .11 cents on average in order to reduce my exposure and take a small loss.

After the run to .28 cents, the white candle created another buy confirmed that of course was invalidated by news and the halt. What ticks me off is that London shareholders were able to sell their shares for a couple of hours after the Premier news release as they were not halted.

I personally cannot see any hope of OilExco as it exists today (current shares) coming out of this with any value that would not be consumed by the RBS secured loan call. While CCAA may assist them in continiuing as an on-going concern. I fear that they may just startover from a share perspective much like Air Canada or Inco had done in the past. The only mitigating factor is that RBS has the right to 25% of the current shares which is worth nothing should OilExco be made worthless. Time will tell if OilExco and RBS will partner to block this sale and find alternative suitors.

For those looking for a safer bet, try the other oil branded company whose symbol is OYL, otherwise known as CGX Energy. They have a crap load of property just off the coast of Guyana which if proven out will make them a takeover target and an explosive stock. This one will take months to develop so look for a reasonable buy-in point over the next couple of weeks and months. The stock has done well the last two weeks due likely to increased market confidence and higher crude prices, but like anything else, it is hard to predict whether it will climb to a target of $1.80 near term or retreat back to the .70s. Time will tell.

M1.
















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