Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

Free
Message: Re: Another key comment from MD&A

@dash

I'm actually firmly on Aves side re:buyout. I believe a buyout is the tacit "plan A" for POET.

We need to *appear* as though we intend to be a going concern into the next decade, hence the need for a strong cash position even at a time when Copetti has issued a strong statement to expect revenues to begin late 2014 to early 2015.

The fact is that if revenue (of the kind predicted in Pellegrino 1) is anticipated for Q4, then we don't really need cash to last until Q3 2015. Of course it's prudent to have reserves as nothing is an absolute certainty. Nevertheless, Copetti clearly thinks that once the POET ecosystem emerges, there will be a strong inclination towards controling it versus licensing it.

***

POET is the next CMOS. It will power devices at least 2 decades into the future and open markets that don't currently exist.

At the moment it seems obvious to the majority that graphene must be developed to be the saviour of the semi industry post-Moore's Law. But once the POET ecosystem is established, the same suggestion will elict a 'why bother?' type response. Post CMOS, all the energy within the semi industry will be refocused on creativity, as opposed to the nuts and bolts of keeping CMOS on life support. New verticals (that will come into existance only when the POET ecosystem is born) will be excluded from Pellegrino 2, but will add to the value of POET, just as tablets (effectively nonexistant when P1 was calculated) changed the equation soon after P1. The notes in the MD&A hint at this when they state that new IP is aimed at distant future R&D.

***

The two most likely outcomes in my mind are as follows:

1) my brokerage account will become a personal, perpetually refilling, ATM machine for me, my kids and their kids. In this scenario, POET will narrowly escape a buyout and become as powerful a force as Intel, AMD, Apple, Samsung, etc.

2) A buyout, although less lucrative, will provide the security of cash in hand. Wealth aside, this scenario will result in the realization that I will never again find another stock with this potential and level of excitement. Nor will I ever find another stock that will inspire me to take on the kind of RISK that POET demands.

I know there are many more than just these two possible scenarios, just as there are many parallel universes in which I have consumed much less whiskey. Nevertheless, I think that we are on the verge of a breakthrough. Possibly the kind of breakthrough that will change the world.

7
May 24, 2014 07:19AM
40
May 24, 2014 08:19PM
5
May 24, 2014 09:08PM
6
May 24, 2014 10:08PM
2
May 25, 2014 01:49AM
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply