Bang on, it doesn't work ou every time, just like everything. I do, however, put more weight in how somethng works over a year than a few days.

I think if one tried a paired strategy, you would short a somewhat equal amount, set a stop for each and adjust it as time went on. In the case of silver over the last year, you would have actually had both in profitable territory (so long as your stop didn't shake you out) for a time. Once it began to rise and the HZU stop was taken out, the stop on the HZD could be adjusted and followed as it profited. The charts may give a good signal as to when to resume your short of HZU.

Theory.