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Message: Dividend in the future?

Dividend in the future?

posted on Apr 27, 2010 04:35PM

After a share buyback, a dividend would be the next blow to the shorts. See this post from a well known short squeeze specialist. I'm emailing this to IR too.


FORCING THOSE THAT REFUSE TO DELIVER THE SECURITIES THEY SOLD TO MAKE A LOSE-LOSE DECISION IN A 30-DAY (CONFINED) TIME PERIOD

Let’s say that after a successful share repurchase program “Acme Mining” announces on Day 1 a generous cash dividend with a “record date” of Day 30. This sets up a 30-day period during which there will be a large amount of buying by shareholders (that’s partly why you want to “rescue” a corporation with a lot of shareholders) as well as opportunists many out to merely “scalp” the dividend. This wave of buying may overlap with a time period in which no shareholders in their right mind would sell lest they miss out on the generous dividend. A large amount of buying in the face of no selling should induce a gap upwards in the share price depending upon how those holding the immense naked short positions react to the incoming wave of buy orders.

But what about these abusive short sellers with pre-existing astronomical levels of open naked short positions. What might they do when they see the dividend distribution press release and a tidal wave of new opportunistic buying coming in? They have 4 options. They could naked short sell into the buying and get themselves on the hook for that many more generous cash dividends to match. They could not naked short sell into the buying and actually start covering their short positions. This could get rather expensive, however, because the mere cessation of their daily “maintenance” naked short selling will cause a gap upwards in the share price by itself not to mention the gap caused by the opportunistic buying in the absence of much selling as well as the buying of the naked short sellers themselves. They could also opt not to naked short sell into the new wave of buying and refuse to cover their preexisting naked short positions or they could simply do nothing and watch the share price take off and prepare to cut some expensive collateralization checks to their clearing firms.

If they don’t naked short sell into this wave of buying the PPS will climb and their clearing firms will demand large checks to keep their daily marked to market collateralization requirements in equilibrium with the new higher share price. If they do NSS into the buying they will be on the hook to match the generous cash dividends associated with their pre-existing short position PLUS THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT NAKED SHORT SELLING INTO THIS NEW WAVE OF BUY ORDERS. Ouch! Once again, you need to force the crooks that are refusing to deliver the securities they sold to you to make a lose-lose decision within a confined amount of time as the status quo on Wall Street is totally corrupt and management needs to be pro-active and force the issue.

FORCING THE CROOKS INTO A “BOX CANYON”

Picture the current corrupt status quo on Wall Street as Main Street “long” investors riding a donkey with osteoarthritis while chasing after Wall Street naked short sellers riding on expensive thoroughbreds. The Main Street “long” investors are cursing at the naked short sellers with their fists clenched and demanding that they cover their naked short positions and deliver to them the securities which they purchased from them. The response of the naked short sellers is a 1-fingered salute.

Let’s say that there is a box canyon up ahead that the Main Street “long” investors actually designed and cleverly directed them into. The Main Street investors limp in later on their donkeys and lock the back gate of the box canyon. They’re tired of the status quo (not getting delivery of that which they purchased) and they decide to once and for all force a showdown in the form of a generous cash dividend wherein the naked short sellers have the 4 unenviable options cited above. Those refusing to deliver the securities that they sold are being forced to make one of 4 lose-lose decisions. Their superior wealth and the superior speed of their expensive thoroughbreds can no longer be leveraged over the donkeys of the investors within a confined space.

During the 30-day timeframe prior to the dividend “record date” some clearing firms that are holding open naked short positions on their books will simply buy-in their naked short selling clients with their collateralization funds without the courtesy of a phone call. On Wall Street there is no such thing as running away from your naked short position i.e. failed delivery obligations by going bankrupt. The NSCC issues a “trade settlement guarantee” wherein if one of their “participating” clearing firms goes b/k then all of the other NSCC “participants” are on the hook for the failed delivery obligations in a pro rata fashion. But they’re only going to be on the hook if management forces them to make a lose-lose decision otherwise you’re back at the corrupt status quo “horserace” phase.

A certain percentage of the smaller brokerage firms and smaller to intermediate-sized hedge funds that “accidentally” ran up enormous naked short positions without being able to kill "Acme Mining" will probably be forced to cover. The smarter ones might cover and then go net long before the dividend record date. They’ll realize that if they’re in a bind then there are huge MMs that are facing a much larger bind but aren’t nimble enough to do anything about it and that they may as well capitalize on their misery.

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