Attention Business Editors:

Financial fireworks mask unimpressive economies

    <<
                      -   U.S. economy to slow from a lacklustre 1.7% pace in 2008 to a
                          lethargic 1.1% pace in 2009
                      -   Canadian GDP growth expected to improve slightly from 0.7% in 2008 to
                          just 1.2% in 2009
                      -   TD Economics believes the worst is in the rear-view mirror for the
                          Canadian economy as a whole (however, the bar was set rather low
                          after the economy contracted modestly in the first half of 2008)
                      -   Softer housing markets and slower employment will weigh on Canadian
                          households
                      -   Bold action from the U.S. policymakers and global central banks
                          addresses some major downside risks, but does little to stop the
                          economic aftermath of tighter credit
                      -   Global economic growth expected to slip from 3.7% in 2008 to 2.9% in
                          2009, slightly below the 3.0% threshold commonly associated with a
                          global recession
                      >>
                  
                      TORONTO, Sept. 25 /CNW/ - Some core beliefs that have shaped the economic
                  forecasts have recently been falling into place, states a report published
                  today by TD Economics. These included the expectation that U.S. home prices
                  would continue to fall, putting homeowners and financial institutions under
                  stress, and leading to a broader slowdown in lending and consumer spending.
                  "Exports have helped keep the U.S. economy afloat, but with lending and
                  spending being crimped, the U.S. economy is on sinking ground," explained
                  Chief Economist Don Drummond. "Unfortunately, our pessimistic forecasts for
                  the U.S. economy are playing out."
                      With strong income growth and unemployment rates in Canada at
                  generational lows, there has been a natural buffer to sustain the Canadian
                  economy while battening down the hatches and preparing for the rocky ride.
                  However, Drummond said, "Eventually, a recession in Canada's biggest trading
                  partner was going to wear down that domestic resilience. The Canadian economy
                  may be more insulated than in the past, but with the U.S. in a tail spin, it
                  just isn't enough."
                      TD Economics believes that the U.S. recession will be at its worst this
                  winter. "The economic fallout in the U.S. will get worse before it gets
                  better, so it's likely to be a year before the pace of economic growth in
                  Canada experiences a shallow recovery," said Drummond. TD Economics believes
                  an ongoing, though moderating, expansion in Canadian consumer and business
                  sectors should be enough to keep the economy out of a recession.
                  
                      Financial fears dampen U.S. holiday cheer
                  
                      "Events over the last three weeks have certainly raised the risk that we
                  have been too optimistic as venerable - yet vulnerable - financial
                  institutions have disappeared," said Drummond. More capital vanished from the
                  financial sector and the already sky-high cost of raising funds leapt again.
                  The news that the U.S. Government would take its involvement in the financial
                  sector to an entirely new level was met by a wave of optimism in markets. "One
                  way or another, there will still be a dead weight loss to be reckoned with,"
                  said Drummond. TD Economics believes the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program)
                  could help revive inter-bank lending sooner. But, institutions will still face
                  large writedowns, their capital will still be depressed, and regional banks
                  will still struggle. Meanwhile, the public sector will take on more risk,
                  which will be a hit to national debt and taxpayers. "The short-term gain does
                  not remove the long-term pain," said Drummond.
                      Demand for credit has risen as U.S. households no longer have a ready
                  source of funds in re-financing their ever-depreciating homes. Corporations in
                  almost all countries need external funding for capital expenditures as
                  retained earnings dwindle. "The fact that these needs would be denied or
                  fulfilled at a high price was critical to our relatively pessimistic outlook,"
                  explained Drummond, adding, "Although key elements of our storyline are
                  falling into place, we face perhaps an even greater uncertainty looking
                  ahead."
                      TD Economics expects exports will be strong enough to keep the U.S.
                  economy expanding in the third quarter of 2008, but by the fourth quarter,
                  forecasts the U.S. economy will contract by 1.4% and only slowly recover into
                  2009. In addition to a retrenchment in consumer spending and ongoing
                  contractions in home construction in the U.S., TD Economics forecasts the
                  global economy will slip into a shallow recession as the result of a slump in
                  a number of industrialized economies. Global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2009 is
                  just below the 3.0% threshold which commonly defines a global recession. With
                  diminished demand overseas, U.S. exports are likely to contribute less to
                  economic growth. "The Farmer's Almanac warns this will may be a colder than
                  usual winter. The Economist's Almanac warns the economy may follow credit
                  markets into a deep freeze this winter," said Drummond.
                  
                      Canadian economy struggles with multiple drags
                  
                      TD Economics cites the profound implications for the Canadian economy.
                  Three-quarters of Canada's trade is with the U.S., and two of the largest
                  exports - forestry products and autos - are the most vulnerable to the housing
                  and consumption weakness south of the border. "It is almost inconceivable that
                  painful adjustments in our manufacturing sector have been completed," said
                  Drummond.
                      TD Economics warns that while the financial environment in Canada is
                  superior to that in the U.S., it too is not immune to the U.S. financial
                  meltdown. Almost a third of Canadian corporate funding comes from the U.S.
                  market, so credit tightness there has a direct impact here. The cost to
                  Canadian financial institutions of raising funds has also soared, although not
                  to the full extent as for U.S. banks. Moreover, lower commodity prices will
                  reverse much of the extraordinary income gains of recent years, particularly
                  in Western Canada.
                      And, as if the cross-border effects were not enough, TD Economics' new
                  forecasts highlight some domestic headwinds. Notably, the Canadian housing
                  sector has come off the boil, with prices moderating across Canada and the
                  pace of new home construction returning to an average pace, but is not
                  crashing American style. With higher costs and greater uncertainties,
                  businesses are easing back on new capital investments and new hiring. Weaker
                  income gains and slower employment growth will contribute to softer consumer
                  spending than what was seen over the last year.
                      In all, these factors lead to a profile for the Canadian economy that
                  resembles that of the American economy. "The Canadian and U.S. economies will
                  continue to essentially move sideways until a fairly tepid recovery begins in
                  the second half of 2009," said Drummond, adding, "The party is definitely
                  over, and no corner of the globe is left out of having to help clean up the
                  mess."
                      TD Economics' Quarterly Economic Forecast can be found at
                  www.td.com/economics