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Message: Re: May15/2015 CC

Jun 19, 2015 09:58AM
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Jun 20, 2015 03:49PM
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Jun 20, 2015 05:34PM

I am rooting for them and, based on the statements that the company itself has released, it sounds like they have a good product. Unfortunately, after 10 years of following them and seeing few (if any) legitimate follow-on sales as a result of client testing, I think there are more questions about EFL's technology than there are answers.

The Litarion transaction does have 'transformative' potential but, speaking only for myself, I have found their handling of it very disappointing. In the lead-up, they included reference to the $30M contract (presumably the SmartforTwo batteries) as part of the acquisition. Then they conveniently left it out of the formal announcement. They have not (in my mind) been effective at laying out their plan for Litarion in the context of their own technology. This notion that they are going to be the 'mother-ship' for electrodes and/or separators is questionable when there are already so many alternative manufacturers pumping them out. And if it was hugely profitable to simply sell the SEPARION technology globally, I do not see why companies like Daimler and Evonik would be so desparate to dump it.

The ability to marry Litarion capacity and technology with EFL's own chemistry/density/cycle-life - and to get the resultant batteries to the mass market - is where this deal is/was supposed to take the company and its shareholders. It is admittedly early days in terms of the acquisition, but if EFL cannot clearly communicate (and subsequently execute) its plan, it will continue to be a fringe player in a rapidly evolving industry. New or alternative chemistries and technologies are emerging all the time, and a company that has generated a market cap of around $65M based almost exclusively on potential and hype will not be sustainable.

I don't want to be negative, but I think Hemi's point about the next few months being critical is accurate. If we get no news, no clear path forward or timelines for marriage of the two technologies, and no real sales of Superpolymer 2.0, it is hard to see how this company will stop itself from falling further behind. Musk's own view appears to be that mass adoption of lithium-ion technology depends on mass production and availability. This could be EFL's last best chance needs to establish a foothold, because if the NA gigafactory and/or Chinese battery industry moves forward without them, there will be little room for smaller, niche players.

Of course, I may be allowing my growing skepticism to infect my view of this company.


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