Over the last few months I've been looking seriously at commodities as an alternative to stock investing. OK, we all know commodities are risky (our stock broker is usually the one telling us this - no conflict there), but if you look at the cause of most amateur blowups, it's almost always due to over-reach - that is to say, too much leverage, too heavily concentrated, or both. Newbies rarely come into this market thinking "I'm going to make reasonable, reliable profits over time." Generally speaking, they're there to get rich, which is what makes them poor. Avoiding these traps, and practicing sound money management ought not to be more difficult than, say, junior mining, where the same caveats apply.

What attracts me most, however, is the simplicity. Seems to me there are far fewer variables that can mess you up. Furthermore, trends tend to be either longer running (industrial materials) or predictably cyclical (soft commodities), and thus easier to follow. Not to say there aren't curve balls, but compare it to stocks where you have to worry about the business model, financing, management competence and honesty, institutional investors, hedge funds, government interference, as well as the usual business and market cycles. The other aspect that's attractive, is that you can play both sides with equal ease. Shorting stocks is a tricky game, especially the less liquid issues. By contrast, the commodity market doesn't care if you're long or short since by definition, there are equal numbers of both.

I'm pretty much ready to go at this point - I already have an account - I just need a little feedback to see if I'm not missing something, plus any links I might not be aware of would be much appreciated, as would any comments or observations from those who've gone before me.

ebear