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Message: STOCKS to FOLLOW:

Stocks to Follow
Desjardins Securities Research

Date: April 2014

Boralex Inc.

Gildan Activewear Inc.

List of Stocks
to Follow

Analysis by
Jeremy Rosenfield
CFA, Analyst

Boralex Inc.

  • Stable cash flows from a diversified core portfolio of over ~600MW (net) of contracted wind and hydro assets in Canada, the United States and France

  • Visible near-term growth, including more than ~160MW (net) of additional contracted wind and hydro projects in advanced development

  • Attractive yield from a newly introduced dividend, with longer term dividend growth potential

  • Relatively inexpensive market valuation compared with larger peers
  • Rating Buy–Average Risk
    12-month target $15.00
    Symbol BLX
    Exchange TSX
    Sector Utility & Power
    Recent price $13.00
    Potential total
    return
    19%
    52-week range $9.76-13.47
    Shares outstanding 38m
    Market capitalization $487m
    Year-end Dec-31
    EBITDA 2014E
    2015E
    $140m
    $167m
    FFO per share 2014E
    2015E
    $1.70
    $2.00
    P/FFO 2014E
    2015E
    7.6x
    6.5x
    FCF per share 2014E
    2015E
    $0.72
    $1.00
    Dividend per share $0.52
    Dividend yield 4.0%
    Payout ratio 2014E
    2015E
    72.7%
    52.0%
    Adjusted debt/total capital 62.1%
    Most recently announced dividend (annualized)

    Desjardins Capital Markets, company reports, Bloomberg

    Boralex Inc. (BLX) is a fast-growing renewable power producer and project developer. The company owns and operates more than 800MW of installed wind, hydro and biomass capacity (over 600MW net owned by BLX) located in Canada, the United States and France. As a project developer, BLX is currently in the process of building an additional ~160MW (net) across seven additional sites in Canada and France.

    Over 90% of the output from BLX’s power plants is sold according to long-term power purchase agreements with public utility companies. Existing contracts provide stable cash flows that fund the company’s ongoing organic growth initiatives, and the newly introduced cash dividend for common shareholders (set at $0.52/share (annualized), a 4% dividend yield). The new dividend is expected to represent a 50% payout ratio on BLX’s expected 2015 free cash flow (FCF), which includes cash generated by the recently completed milestone 272MW Seigneurie de Beaupré wind facility in Québec (a 50% joint venture with Gaz Métro/Valener). The dividend is expected to grow gradually in the coming years as BLX continues to increase its installed capacity base and generate additional free cash flows.

    BLX’s shares continue to trade at a relative discount compared with its larger renewable power producer peers (eg 7x P/FFO vs ~8–9x), which is largely due to the company’s smaller size and lower share liquidity. As the company continues to grow over time, we expect the valuation gap should narrow and eventually close. Furthermore, we see additional upside potential for BLX’s shares if the company can successfully secure new contracted growth projects from its pipeline of development prospects that do not currently have contracts in place.

    Risks to our recommendation include: (1) weather and hydrological risks for the wind and hydroelectric facilities, (2) foreign exchange risk, and (3) regulatory, financing and execution risk related to the company’s growth projects.

    BLX is rated Buy–Average Risk with a $15.00 price target. Our target is derived from our discounted cash flow model, and a relative valuation based on a 7.5x multiple applied to our 2015 funds from operations (FFO) per share estimate ($2.00).

    Analysis by
    Chase Bethel
    CFA, Analyst

    Gildan Activewear Inc.

    • Led by a talented, entrepreneurial management team with a track record of success

  • Attractive, multi-year organic growth plans have both top line and cost savings focal points

  • Strong financial position that can be used to complement organic growth objectives
  • Rating Buy–Average Risk
    Target C$66.50
    Symbol GIL
    Exchange TSX, NYSE
    Recent prices C$55.71
    US$50.38
    Total potential return 20%
    52-week range C$38.95-60.30
    Shares outstanding 122m
    Market capitalization C$6,658m
    Year-end Sep-30
    Revenue 2013A
    2014E
    2015E
    US$2,184m US$2,354m
    US$2,475m
    EBITDA 2013A
    2014E
    2015E
    US$447m
    US$496m
    US$583m
    EPS 2013A
    2014E
    2015E
    US$2.69
    US$3.05
    US$3.43
    P/E 2013A
    2014E
    2015E
    18.7x
    16.5x
    14.7x
    Book value per share US$14.29
    Operating ROE
    (last 12 months)
    21%
    Dividend per share US$0.43
    Dividend yield 0.9%
    Adjusted, diluted

    Gildan Activewear Inc. (Gildan) is a leading manufacturer and marketer of high-quality undecorated apparel, with a distinguished track record of success. Gildan’s earnings per share have increased by compounded annual growth rates of 12.6% and 19.6% over the past five and ten years, respectively. We highlight that three of the five named executive officers at Gildan have been with the company since its initial public offering, a level of collective tenure that we view as being rare for a public entity. Gildan continues to be led by Glenn Chamandy—one of its co-founders—who recently affirmed his intention to remain at the helm for years to come.

    Gildan offers investors exposure to its attractive, multi-year organic growth plans, which have both top line and cost savings focal points. As it relates to top line revenue growth, Gildan intends to add 50m dozens of activewear and underwear capacity in Central America over the next 3–4 years. This incremental capacity will enable the company to pursue approximately US$1b of additional revenue growth across both its Printwear and Branded Apparel operating segments.

    Not only is Gildan investing in order to grow its top line, it is also investing to improve product quality and reduce its costs. To date, the company has announced US$330m of investments in new and existing yarn-spinning facilities. Spinning is the single most costly step in converting cotton fibres into yarn. Whereas the company has traditionally purchased yarn from third parties, Gildan will be increasing the degree of vertical integration with the substantial investments that are being made. It will also continue to invest in energy cost savings initiatives, such as the use of biomass for steam generation. Based on the investments announced, Gildan expects to achieve US$100m in annualized cost savings by fiscal year 2017 (FY17), with initial savings beginning in FY15.

    We believe that the sum of top line growth and cost savings plans in place at the company will enable it to deliver EPS growth comparable—on an organic basis—to historical rates over the medium term.

    Even with the significant capital expenditures that Gildan expects to make this year and next (capital expenditure guidance of US$300–350m in FY14), the company should still generate free cash flow of US$50–100m. What’s more, Gildan entered the year with US$97m of cash on its balance sheet and no debt. Management has indicated that the main focus of its 2014 strategic planning cycle is acquisitions. Gildan’s acquisition focus notwithstanding, we believe it is likely that dividend increases and/or share buybacks will also figure into management’s plans to deploy excess cash once its strategic plan is finalized.

    We rate Gildan’s shares Buy–Average Risk, with a target price of C$66.50. Our target price is based on applying an 18x multiple to our FY14 estimate of US$3.05, plus the present value of 65% of US$100m savings by FY17 (US$0.33 per share, taxed basis); we convert to Canadian dollars using US$0.90/C$1.

    List of Stocks to Follow
    CompanyTSX
    symbolPrice ($)Market
    cap ($m)Rating 1Target
    price ($)Dividend
    yieldTotal
    expected
    returnSector
    The Toronto-Dominion Bank TD 51.83 94,800 Top Pick-AR 57.50 3.3% 14% Banks
    Brookfield Asset Management BAM.A 40.85 25,074 Top Pick-AR 45.00 2.0% 12% Diversified Financials
    Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. AQN 7.80 1,622 Top Pick-AR 9.00 4.3% 20% Utility & Power
    Detour Gold Corporation DGC 9.57 1,551 Top Pick-AAR 15.00 - 57% Precious Metals
    Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ 42.37 45,940 Buy-AR 49.00 2.1% 18% Oil & Gas
    Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF 38.28 23,319 Buy-AAR 43.00 3.8% 16% Life Insurance
    CGI Group Inc. GIB.A 34.13 10,449 Buy-AAR 43.00 - 26% Technology Services
    CI Financial Corp. CIX 34.87 9,828 Buy-AAR 40.00 3.3% 18% Diversified Financials
    Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited CTC.A 104.23 8,417 Buy-AR 125.00 1.7% 22% Consumer Products & Merchandising
    SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. SNC 48.34 7,250 Buy-AAR 55.00 2.0% 16% Engineering & Construction
    Gildan Activewear Inc. GIL 55.71 6,658 Buy-AR 66.50 0.9% 20% Special Situations
    BRP Inc. DOO 28.95 3,356 Buy-AR 35.00 - 21% Industrials
    Whitecap Resources Inc. WCP 12.34 2,513 Buy-AR 16.00 5.4% 35% Oil & Gas
    Artis Real Estate Investment Trust AX.UN 15.73 1,998 Buy-AR 17.50 6.9% 18% Real Estate
    Alamos Gold Inc. AGI 9.99 1,281 Buy-AAR 14.40 2.2% 46% Precious Metals
    Transat A.T. Inc. TRZ.B 8.10 319 Buy-AR 15.00 - 85% Transportation & Aerospace

    Adding DGC

    Our Precious Metals analyst, Michael Parkin, has added DGC (Detour Gold) to the list.

    Adding SNC

    Enbridge (ENB) is up 10% year-to-date: our Infrastructure & Diversified Industry analyst, Pierre Lacroix, has replaced ENB with SNC (SNC-Lavalin) as he sees more near-term catalysts and upside potential.

    Adding DOO

    Our Industrial Products analyst, Benoit Poirier, has added DOO (BRP Inc.) to the list.

    Adding WCP

    Baytex (BTE) is up 10% year-to-date: our Oil & Gas analyst, Kristopher Zack, has replaced BTE with WCP (Whitecap) due to a more favourable risk/return trade-off.
    Removals from the List
    CompanyTSX
    symbolPrice ($)Market
    cap ($m)Rating Target
    price ($)Dividend
    yieldTotal
    expected
    returnSector
    Enbridge Inc. ENB 50.21 41,719 Buy-AR 55.00 3.1% 13% Energy Infrastucture
    Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 45.52 5,723 Buy-AR 47.00 5.8% 9% Oil & Gas

    Removal of ENB

    Enbridge (ENB) is up 10% year-to-date: our Infrastructure & Diversified Industry analyst, Pierre Lacroix, has replaced ENB with SNC (SNC-Lavalin) as he sees more near-term catalysts and upside potential.

    Removal of BTE

    Baytex (BTE) is up 10% year-to-date: our Oil & Gas analyst, Kristopher Zack, has replaced BTE with WCP (Whitecap) due to a more favourable risk/return trade-off.
    Desjardins Capital Markets, Bloomberg
    AR: Average Risk, AAR: Above-average Risk;
    Price, market capitalization and target price are in U.S. dollars.
    Target change: $125.00 (from $113.00)
    Target change: $15.00 (from $18.00)
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