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Message: Breakeven & Profitability

Breakeven & Profitability

posted on Jun 26, 2009 12:40AM

The timeline toward profitability is being debated over at the Stockhouse board. Here's what I've posted at Stockhouse concerning the matter:

OPINION: I won't be addressing this issue again until the latter part of Q2 fiscal 2010. Profitability is within sight near term...Nick Agostino of Research Capital seems to agree as evidenced by the following points sourced from his recent reports about ACT's business prospects:

1) Breakeven estimated at ~$2.3 million in quarterly revenues (anticipated by Q1/FY2010 = Oct. 31, 2009)
(Source: Research Capital report published on March 26, 2009)
Note: 2009 Fiscal Year End is July 31, 2009; 2010 Fiscal Year End is July 31, 2010.

2) Sustained profitability expected by 2H/F10 = February 2010

Contingent upon:
a) Take-up (i.e., PO's) of ACT's wireless mesh solution.
b) Enforcement of the MINER Act deadline. (OPINION: I don't believe this will be an issue. I've read reports indicating that the majority of mine operators have submitted their ERP's by the June 15, 2009 and are complying with the requirements of the MINER Act.)
c) Successful deployments.
Note: ACT has ~$6 million in tax loss carryforwards, which should benefit profitability.
(Source: Research Capital report published on February 24, 2009)


REMINDER

CAPTURED [Current value of backlog]: $4.95M-$5.35M
>80% CHANCE OF CAPTURE [Future indicated deployments]: $2.0M-$2.4M
=50% CHANCE OF CAPTURE [Factored pipeline (written quotes) - As of June 16, 2009]: $35M+
<50% CHANCE OF CAPTURE [Unfactored pipeline (excluding written quotes)]: $50M-$70M
** 20-25% of revenues are expected to be recurring.

** Gross Margins of 40% (company target) - Achieved in Q2-FY2009 (Nov. 1, 2008 - Jan. 31, 2009)
(Source: Research Capital report published on March 26, 2009)
Gross Margin Ratio = Gross Profit / Sales


POLITE SUGGESTIONS

1) Wait for the ERP review and approval process to play out. The deadline for ERP submissions was only last week. (June 15, 2009).
2) Give ACT a reasonable amount of time to prove that it can execute. So far, so good in my opinion.
3) Do your own DD.

***************************EOM

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