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Message: AEM -- buyout target

AEM -- buyout target

posted on Mar 06, 2008 11:15AM

The more I look at AEM the more I feel that they will be taken out by one of the big companies ( Newmont, Barrick or maybe even Goldcorp).

With the cost structure at AEM so attractive and the upcoming production coming on stream all of the big boys would love to have AEM. The problem is the price they are going to have to pay for this great company.

You can throw out all the NAV analysis you want but will have a hard time justifyling the current price of AEM compared to their peers. What they do have that the others don't have is production coming on line that will make this "cash cow" an even bigger cash cow.

Newmont needs low cost production and sees it's current production dropping off and getting very expensive per ounce of gold.

Barrick needs to get production going to cover the pending delivery of the 9.5 million ounces of hedged gold ( now I think it is 7.8 million).

Goldcorp wants to be #1 and needs more production coming on line to do so. Also being in Canada there will be more synergies between the two companies. Barrick also wants to stay #1 and will do anything to stay there.

A take out price for AEM will be over $ 100 per share ...but all of the companies mentioned will buy AEM buy "throwing their shares at them".....so there will not be any cash involved .

All this is just my opinion of what is being set up......I hope AEM will consider ARU before they are gobbled up......

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