All in my opinion. Please conduct your own DD as this is not intended as investment advice.

Still a bit jet lagged but slowly getting back at it. I can understand somes displeasure but I think that if you think it through, we had to start off where we are now with the Kinross offer.

The way I've always seen it is that the game would start on the first bid. Let's face it, and I said this again and again before the shit hit the fan, but those in the know (both insiders and funds) saw risk begin to emerge it's ugly head not just in the last few months but way back to when Correa got elected.

I have no want to rustle any feathers here, but I always chuckled a bit as some went on and on about the stock being manipulated down. When I ran house summaries over periods I could clearly see patterns of divesting by many of the major institutions which clearly indicated to me anyway that a lot of funds with cheap paper were running risk scenereos and finding it not worth the wait. To move million share positions you have to sell into strength which ends up appearing to the untrained eye like someone is holding the stock down ...well that's my opinion anyway.

Myself on the other hand looked at this trend and disregarded it as people who both underestimated the importance of the deposit and over exagerated the political risk. There fear would lead to my gain or so I believed. I mean how can you be on the wrong side of the trade if you believe as I do that Ecuadors ultimate prosperity will come to be at least partly due to a vibrant mining industry.

I liked the fact that our team also stood fast with next to no insider sales. That all changed as Patrick and the gang began to unload a bunch a few months ago. I posted bitterly about it, never accepting any of the excuses put forward but stupidly chose to believe that I "got it", that I was smart enough to know the situation having never put a boot on Ecuadorian soil. These Insiders sales as I said at the time were a clear indication that the politics had changed for the worse and that although the ultimate outcome was still weighted in our favour, the risk had become some what tangible and even the Insiders had decided it was time to lock a little in.

We all know what happened next ...no need to get into it here.

Flash foward to the Kinross bid. I haven't been able to ascertain the steps that led to it... so as always we are left to speculate.

But when I think it through I'm quite happy. The only thing that bothers me is the PP. I have people loking into the legality of it. I don't ever recall seeing a deal like this include a similiar "sweetner". But that aside when I play it out, I like our chances here.

The breakup fee at $45m or whatever is fair. For those not familiar with a clause like this it simply means that should a better offer come in, we can legally walk away from the deal by paying Kinross $45m. That $45m would of course be eaten by the next bidder...

So again, think it through. We who have believed in this stock have mostly believed that multiple firms would not only love to get their hands on FDN but that some needed it. That has been my belief and I continue to believe this.

We all know that they've been content to sit back and watch us prove up the ounces while the political situation unfolds. The firms most interested would have a people in their M&A departments more competant at understanding the unfolding political scene than you and I ever will I guess.

If you look at it like a poker game they have been able to go through the flop, turn with everyone just checking. Nobody pressed them. I've been saying for going on two years that we just need that first bid. Well that first bid came so now it's time to see what these M&A experts really think about Ecuador. If they believe as I (we) have that Ecuador will end up with a fair and stable envireonment in terms of foreign invement in mining, you can bet that they will come knocking.

If we don't see another bid, my bet is that the odds are stacked up against us more than any of us realize.

The market determines fair value. While not always completely efficient it does a pretty darn good job at working it out.

I believe this is the first of multiple bids.

I personally witnessed accumulation today which tells me even if no other Major steps up, the a M&A hedge funds are circling their wagons and taking a position to at very least squeeze a couple more dollars out of Kinross. Keep in mind that a deal can't go compulsory without 90% (from memory it could be 85-92ish) of the shares tendered.

My shares will sit in my account until any deal goes mandatory. While I don't have the means to dissent and fight for the next five years in court for fair value,I will stretch my be until I wake up one day to find my shares replaced by cash.

I'm not pissed at all with management. Back before the election they made an unpopular move which turned out to be quite prudent when they did that big PP as some of you will recall. They followed it up recently by showing insight in locking in some gains before the sh_t hit the fan. Now they've gone to the Majors and simply said you know how many ounces we have, you know the political situation...what are we worth to you. We and our shareholders are no longer going to take on this risk alone as you sit back in your chair checking as you hope to draw your flush or whatever.

They gave Kinross a deal that nobody could turn down. They at least picked a company that will offer us considerable leverage should this deal go through. Far better than getting stuck with Barrick or Newmont paper in my opinion. Should the political situation turn ugly Kinross isn't going to zero. Should the political envireonment turn more positive than expected you can bet FDN will show up significantly in Kinross's qrt'ers especially given the proposed extraction of FDN's sweetspot out of the gate.

The game is now on in my opinion. If the Majors want our beloved FDN the clock is now ticking. The Rivers has been dealt and the guy to the left of the dealer has placed a bet. The Majors have to fold or put up. They either want or need this deposit as we have believed or they don't. I don't see the problem at all in putting the gun to their collective heads here at all. Sure if the WFT gets thrown out and royalties come in at 3% we're going to look stupid BUT honestly does anyone here see the current gov't coming out with anything but a sweet deal for Ecuador.

In conclusion, and yes my lack of sleep has me weeving all over the road on this post is the market is a disaster right now. I don't see a lot of downside in Kinross here when compared with it's peers and given how far it is currently off it's 52 week high. In other words I don't personally see much downside from the current close. The market being a disaster means I don't feel that Ihave a lot of opportunity costs here. Therefore I'm a buyer/holder at these levels and rate the possibility of competing bids as being very high and if not the chance of Kinross being squeezed for another couple of bucks pretty much a certainty.

Well that's my opinion anyway. Keeps your chin up and your stick on the ice.

Best regards,

Buck

ps. way too much type for my sore eyes to proof...my apologies for the spelling and grammar and possible incomplete thoughts.