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Message: China's Copper Surplus Cut

Bell is the "problem child" in my portfolio. As such, most of my attention has been in the rare earth sector.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are crucial in a host of military, high end electronic and many new clean teck applications. All the soon-to-be-on-the-road hybrids new super magnets which need REEs.

Some 95% of REEs are produced in China. And they are increasing restricting exports via quotas and taxs.

Increasing demand...supply restrictions...that's the nutshell...that's why -- if you put your ear close to your computer -- you can hear me pounding, nay hammering, my table for REEs. And other speciality metals like tungsten and indium.

Why Rare Earths Matter is a great primer for anyone who need to get up to speed. And read anything from Jack Lifton particularly his The Age of Technology Metals.

Dines just came out with his rare earth recos last Friday. Kaiser has been talking about AVL and RES for quite some time...a least a couple of years. AVL is one of his top picks and thinks it has major upside. Mickey Fulp, the mercenary geologist, has a report on AVL.

RES was recommended by Bob Bishop in his former GMSR some three years back. He's a major shareholder who has recently increased his position.

RES is a double play. Gold via a JV with Newmont who think they may have a Cripple Creek situation. That Colorado-based mine has produced over 22MM ounces of gold and is still churning. Newmont will start a major drilling program -- completely on their dime -- later this summer.

Bob thinks the gold potential here is "elephantine" -- his words, not mine. And the JV is structured so RES retains all REE and uranium credits.

RES recently announced a 43-101 compliant 9.3 million tons of REEs. Great video intreview of BB with RES president Don Ranta from last Nov.

In fairness to those who come here to discuss Bell, this will be my only post on rare earths on this board. But you can sometimes find me over the RES, AVL and Geodex boards.

So back on the copper ranch, the red metal is more of a long term story. We should continue to see strong demand from Asia and emerging economies but that will be offset by weaker demand in the OCED countries. The only good news in the latter will be how much stimulus spending on infrasturture over the next year or so offsets traditional copper demand from replacement car sales and new housing starts. That may mean copper trading from the high $1 buck to mid $2 dollar range. I would be surprised to see it go over $3 within next year or so. Prices that high are farther out, IMHO.

As for Bell specifically, I'm guessing the current Kabba well should be now in the late stages of drilling. I'd love to hear some of Dr. Marsh's latest geo thoughts...

We need some good news. We are not out of the woods on BCU yet. Not be any stretch...








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