posted on May 25, 2008 08:48AM
Camino Rojo Mexico : In-situ - 4.0 million ounces gold; 68.32 million ounces of silver.
What a week! While reflecting on the events of the last week I have these thoughts...
Prior to the first announced DD assays, I remember folks posting that they would marvel at 400 m of sulfides under Represa. Rock had been posting his volume and grade estimates for the oxide zone that indicated a multi-million ounce deposit. I speculated that the deposit breccia body was a diatreme like Penasquito and posted several technical papers on them that showed that they occur in clusters. Most had assumed that the mapped fault was the western boundary of the deposit. The anticipation and anxious wait led to a dust-up that saw a valued poster leave the board over an unfortunate misunderstanding from interpretation of my motives because of my poorly chosen words concerning CR-19 and the nature of the "fault".... We all sat in impatience and relative silence in the days prior to the NR that gave us what we wanted AND MORE, only to watch in amazement at the tumble in the SP!
Those were the good old days (old being just a few months, which is appropriate if you're a bug). But for us real "gold' bugs and Canplats longs that had faith in the assay results, we added to our holdings as the news of the monster unfolded and the share price fell then languished.
Today the story is different. The Camino Rojo is more of a gold deposit than any of us speculated, truly a marvel, especially when so few "gorillas, elephants" have been found in the past several years. The majors are hungry and on the hunt to ingest any promising deposit that is in the "tip of the iceberg" phase, as the CEO of Goldcorp stated. Has anyone heard of a recent discovery that is in the class of Represa/Don Julio? Not only is the game on but we have become the BEST game in town!! IMO.
With Canaccord's coverage last week, more prognosticators that have large followings will join the rush to endorse Canplats in a short time IMO. I have speculated that a GIANT neighbor is quietly taking a position through the open market, positioning themselves to take a lunge at Canplats soon. Some say by the end of the year, but as Rock suggested on the other BB, because of the near unbelievable pace of exceptional drill results and new target discoveries on this massive land holding, this timing is accelerating and an assault on our "Gem of All Gems" can happen at most any moment, IMO. I think that it will be aggressive and difficult to withstand.
What shall we do? What will the company do? Can we take a strategy that prevents a premature loss of the real and potential value in Camino Rojo, so as to not end up diluted in the massive caverns of a Goldcorp or Industrias Penoles or some other hungry GIANT circling, looking for weakness and an opening?
I am not an expert in these matters but only wish to stimulate discussion and ideas from those here that are more knowledgeable than I, that serves to formulate a strategy that maximizes our return in this once in a lifetime discovery.
I have asked Blaine Monaghan about the possibility of the company initiating a "Shareholders Rights Plan (SRP)", he indicated that management had discussed the potential need for such a move and at that early stage did not implement such a plan. Is it time to renew that discussion?
I am just speculating from here on and my ideas do not reflect anything I learned from the company, I'm not sure that they will even welcome my ideas or appreciate the disagreements this discussion may stir up. Believe me that my motive is purely to maximize my return and I'm willing to follow whatever path leads to that end... and have some adventure and learn something along the way.
Can we withstand a "hostile" or premature bid to takeover Canplats? Here is my take;
1. In discussions with a shareholder who influences the position of a multi-million share block, they are firm in their commitment to have the company continue to develop and realize the FULL value of this discovery and those discoveries yet to come. The "Blue Sky" is VERY blue and I cannot see to the horizon.
2. The management team has the expertise, resources and talent to see this discovery beyond the development drilling phase AND they own large blocks of stock. AND they are smart, strategic thinkers as they have demonstrated in their handling of this discovery to date. I believe that they are ready to ride out rough waters and as R. Quartermain stated, which I paraphrase... when you find a great stallion, you ride it! I have no indications from them that this is so, it is only my gut level feeling.
So where does this lead? IMO , if the small shareholders, like myself, with those that control large blocks of shares and the insiders who have very large blocks of shares, if we stick together then it is possible, IMO, that a hostile beast will not be able to accumulate a 51% share and gobble us up.
A small diamond explorer, Goldsource (GXS) recently (within the last 60 days) and by accident discovered a massive coal body. The SP quickly rose to $7 from pennies. Thanks to pw, I took a look and the event that caught my attention was that the company quickly voted in a SRP, a 78 page document that is posted on their SEDAR site. I read the document, chapter and verse, as painful and foggy as it was, to see what it accomplished for GXS and holders of its 30 million shares.
The thing that struck me was that as soon as any outside entity reached a 20% or 30% stake in the company, the SRP kicks in. This is a reason I might support such a move, as I have asked in previous posts, "will we see the GIANT coming"? How can one defend their position with limited ability to see the hostile and path of their approach?
Once this threshold is reached, then I take it, under a SRP, that current shareholders have a right to purchase more shares under some formula that I did not understand, thus diluting the ownership portion in each share, making it more difficult for the hostile party to take control as the total number of shares increases. (Forgive me if I got this wrong, correct me if I misconstrue the facts of a SRP).
The long and short of it is, for me, if we can see a hostile coming then we have an opportunity to organize a defense, IF such a move would lead to a better deal for me (us) in the long-term.
I think that if Canplats sees from us, the little guys (some not so little) as a united front, urging them to resist a premature and hostile bid, they might be even more inclined to stand strong, in recognition that together we become a formidable foe, standing united against any such attack on our position.
I realize that some will opt to take a profit and will have little interest in mounting a defense and I wish those folks well. I can understand that position and have no hostility towards them, the lure of a profit is real and present and my dad taught me that it is never wrong to take a profit.
What do you think?
Enough of my rambling... not investment advice or a substitute for an individuals "due diligence", just an opinion.