I think that everyone is missing a very key point here.

Great Divide allows for 10,000 bpd production. This is on an AVERAGE basis, annualized. We have been producing much less than that for the first quarter, maybe around 4,000 bpd average. This means that if the Great Divide production exceeded the allowable average on a PER DAY basis, we could produce at 12,000 bpd for the rest of the year and still come up with an average annualized production of 10,000 bpd.

Further, prices are higher now than they were first quarter. And they will be higher again as the year progress (in my opinion, although I could be wrong).

Therefore, let's say that Connacher turns it up to 12,000 bpd from Great Divide in Q3, and the average price of a barrel of oil on Nymex is $140 for the quarter. Good lord, I hope not, but it would do wonders for my portfolio. Anyway, can someone calculate the cash flow to the company in the quarter using those two numbers? That is going to be a killer quarter.

Alright, on to a more important number - year-end 2008. Let's assume that oil stays where it is or slightly higher, and that the yearly weighted average for the barrels that we produce comes in at a $65 netback per barrel of bitumen for the entire year. Let's also assume that Great Divide can be ramped up to 10,000 bpd for the entire year by overproducing during the second half. So in other words, look at the numbers for 3.65 million barrels at $60. Then add in MRC money (which should start rising from the recent ashes as distillates rise). Then add in earnings from conventional production.

We're looking at about 4.5 million barrels with everything included, not counting MRC. We're talking about maybe $300m here for the year. And slightly over 200m shares outstanding.

Can you imagine if the market valued us at 8x based on GD and conventional alone?

Anyway, someday, somebody with deep pockets is going to wake up and smell the roses. I can't help but think that once Algar is heating up, and almost 25,000 bpd is imminent, we're going to be taken out. I only hope that it takes that long, so our SP has had time to rise at least into the double digits. Gusella thinks that $20/share is a reasonable number in the medium term.