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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: buyout / 2C

Dec 08, 2011 03:00PM
2
Dec 08, 2011 03:09PM

Dec 08, 2011 03:57PM

I almost misted the action today (Christmas concert at school). Dumped 1/2 of my 36 cents shares in the last moment. This was a second biggest payout this year next to the Open Range spin-out of the Poseidon.

Merry Christmas to you to. It was a pleasure to have you here. Thanks for the tips on the MEG. Do not worry about shortes. CLL short ratio for December is ZERO.

Fanny thing is that we do not know if mysterious offer will ever come through.

All we know is that when the CLL shares were at ~40 cents Cnnacher received: non-binding proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of the company.

The proposal is conditional upon, among other things, due diligence...

The offer was confidential when the CLL shares were about 40 cents. Dut to the leak SP moved to 90 cents and the investor may not be interested anymore at this higher price.

I wrote this before that it is hard to belive that someone would pay $1.6 billion without good prospect of having 10% to 15% ROC (return on capital). This would imply $160 to $240 million per year from 14,000 bbl/d production of Bitumen.There is no free cash flow here to get such a return.

Connacher is loosing money with the pre-payout Royalty brakes at 6%.

At 30% post payout rate new investor will loose big money on this venture.

The NAVPS are totally useless in this case. Why would you buy the NAV which can not generate any money?


Dec 08, 2011 08:12PM
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