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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: math

I was wondering if anyone could do some calculations for me. I've done them so many times that I keep coming up with different answers. Please don't take this as pumping.

Let me start with some assumptions that I believe but are not based in proven fact at this point in time. Before the new JV starts mining LC I believe that there will be a minimum 27 million ounces of gold but probably closer to 30 million ounces. This is based on a $1200 gold price.

Fung has stated at the AGM that the new JV will optimize the mine to complete extraction of the gold in 20 years or less. This would put the yearly production at 450,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold a year for our 1/3 share. (30 million divided by 20 years is 1.5 million a year)

The current cost of mining is estimated at around $300 an ounce. RM has told me that as more tonnage is processed a day the cost comes down. For the sake of argument lets put the costs of mining at $400 an ounce to take in any unforeseen problems.

I will also assume that the JV is allowed to sell their gold at spot price. I have already stated why I think this will happen in past posts. This gives us a profit before taxes of $800 an ounce. The figure i come up with is 500,000 X $800 = 400 million dollars a year.

Before I take into account the money we owe VZ for taxes and royalties, am I correct in assuming that the $400 difference between the spot price of $1200 and the profit price of $800 I'm using will take care of the money we owe CRRC for the cost of mining that they are footing the bill for?

Secondly if this is correct, then we would owe VZ 40% of the $400 million. This works out to be $160 million leaving us with $240 million. If we use a share base of 400 million shares this works out to .60 a share.

I looked for a gold company that had similar earning. Kinross had .55 EPS. They have about 700 million shares or close to double our amount. There current P/E ratio is 33.09 and are trading on the TSX at $18.20

I looked a Yamana which has about 740 million shares. Their EPS was .26 and their P/E is 40.93 with a stock price of $10.92.

So here I am with some pie in the sky figures trying to see where Kry down the road fits in. I don't want anyone jumping down my throat here but the way I keep seeing it makes me question my math. If we use a fairly low P/E ratio of 20 or half of Yamana's because we are in VZ I still come up with $12 a share based on .60 EPS.

I realize this is 3 years down the road but I'm trying to get a handle on how much I should sell to take profit when we get the permit and how much I should keep for production.

Feel free to dismantle my calculations and do them properly. The thought of $12 plus is making my head spin.

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