Atgavy,

The math does not work from any angle you look at it.

1. CITGO is valued at $13B,

2.- The potential judgements thus far are worth $23B, and counting,

3.- The cash available and debt capacity would allow CITGO to pay $6-8B without putting the goose with the golden eggs at risk in a default situation in a crude / refining downturn.

4.- The creditors left holding the bag would likely get $0.20-0.30 on a dollar in a debt restructuring whenever Venezuela is forced to pay its $100B debt to get help from international financing institutions (World Bank, IMF, etc.).

5.- With CITGO earning $2-4B per year, depending on the crude oil price and refining margins, it could pay out the remaining judgement creditors over time.

Of course, everybody wants to be paid "yesterday", but in the auction scenario, only a few of the creditors in front of the line would be. The rest would be left by the wayside, with maybe a potential opportunity to get pennies on a dollar in a debt restructuring process.

The striking fact here is that the CITGO ship is fast approaching a point of no return and there is still no settlement. At this point only KRY, and possibly Conoco Philips partly, have a secured payout in the share auction scenario because they have a perfected lien on the CITGO shares (step 7 in the attachment process). All the other creditors have yet to reach that status. The remaining conditional creditors are riding KRY's coattails but would not be able to do so once KRY (and possibly Conoco Philips for a portion of its claims against Venezuela) is paid off, as required by Delaware law. Note that Delaware law must be applied by the District Court because the legal action is a judgement collection against CITGO, a Delaware Corporation.

Here, the game-changer for Venezuela takes place when the conditional and additional judgement creditors reach step 7. This is the point of no return for CITGO because the creditors in front of the line will want to be paid "yesterday" and would not have any incentive to stop the auction. Save for the U.S. government intervening again with an OFAC license requirement, CITGO is toast. The grim reality here is mindboggling: not having paid KRY and stopped the auction by now defies all logic and MATH. Keeping CITGO makes all the sense in the world, giving its importance for Venezuela, the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world, in a much needed economic recovery. Never mind the political and legal downfall for the CITGO BOD and the Venezuelan government.