>So far management has convinced Exxon to stay - good on them so far. This suggests that there is a very small high reward chance they will pull off having Exxon stay. This is my bet. Once they stay, further wells will be tested and success will come

Where does it state that Exxon was planning on leaving? All we know is that Exxon wanted to discontinue work on the Foldeak-1 well. Perfectly understandable if the target of the F1 was a natural fracture system that later proved to contain water.

Falcon and MOL have now convinced Exxon to perform another frac, athough 'convince' is somewhat of an inappropriate term, it was more of a 'majority wins' situation. With Falcon and MOL having 2/3 of the voting power of the operating commitee, Exxon didn't really have much choice in the matter.